Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors, including behavior, that impact the knowledge and use of futures contracts among Brazilian coffee producers. The results are based on primary data obtained from a sample of 244 farmers. Design/methodology/approach A multinomial logistic regression model is adjusted to analyze the determinants of the producers’ choices. Findings The results show that behavioral variables play an important role in the decision to use futures contracts: risk propensity, self‐confidence in management, and the level of market monitoring. Variables such as education and crop size also factor into this decision. Research limitations/implications A limitation of this study is that the analysis of farmers’ decisions and behavior was limited to one year. Future research which examines a more comprehensive group of producers over a longer period can reveal in more detail the determining factors for the use of futures contracts as a price risk management tool in the coffee market. Originality/value The paper is the first to interview Brazilian coffee producers about their hedging decisions on a large scale. The main contributions this paper makes to the literature are the inclusion of behavioral variables in its analysis that will prove valuable in both future research and in the investment industry.

Os mercados futuros possuem uso restrito entre os cafeicultores brasileiros, o que, de certa maneira, não condiz com as altas razões ótimas de hedge obtidas nos modelos de mínima variância. Os motivos para esta baixa utilização estão associados às características do produtor e de seu negócio, preferências em relação ao modelo de administração de risco da atividade e questões comportamentais. Diante disso, o presente estudo buscou verificar quais fatores interferem na decisão de uso destes derivativos entre os cafeicultores brasileiros. Em uma primeira etapa, foram calculadas razões ótimas de hedge, de acordo com Myers e Thompson (1989), para os mercados da BM&FBOVESPA e ICE Futures. Tais razões apresentaram valores superiores a 50%. Em uma segunda etapa, a partir da aplicação de 373 questionários, observou-se que 12,9% da amostra declara conhecer e utilizar futuros, sendo que, na média, a razão de hedge adotada esteve abaixo de 50%. Em uma terceira etapa, a partir de um modelo logit, concluiu-se que os fatores que influenciaram o uso dos contratos foram grau de aversão ao risco de preço, tamanho da produção, nível de conhecimento sobre derivativos e dimensão pela qual se entende que tais instrumentos levam à maior estabilidade da receita da atividade.
Brazilian coffee farmers use future markets in a very restricted way, which does not follow the high optimal hedge ratio observed in minimum variance models. Reasons for the low use are associated to producers and their business characteristics, their preferences about risk management tool and behavioral attitudes. In this context, the aim of this study was to examine the main factors which influence derivatives use among Brazilian coffee growers. Initially, the optimal hedge ratio was calculated with Myers and Thompson (1989) method, considering BM&FBOVESPA and ICE Futures (New York) markets. The ratio had values higher than 50%. After that, through surveys with 373 coffee farmers, it was observed that only 12.9% of the sample reported knowing and using futures as a way to manage the price risk. The hedge ratio adopted by farmers, on average, was below 50%. In a third step, a logit model was applied for data. Most important factors which explain the use of future contracts by coffee growers were risk aversion, size of production, level of understanding about future contracts and the level which farmers understand that future contracts enable the decrease of revenue fluctuation

The analysis of locational factors is the key to understand the localization of innovation. The mobility of skilled workers is one of these factors. The mobility of workers is important for innovation activities because the knowledge is embodied in people. The aim of this article is to evaluate if the mobility of skilled workers can influence the regional innovation in Brazil. The mobility was analyzed with micro-data of formal workers between the micro-regions of Brazil on the years of 2003 to 2008. The indicators of mobility were created for total workers, workers with higher education and workers in technical and scientific occupations in selected economics activities. The knowledge production function framework at the regional level was used. The empirical approach shows that the inflows and outflows of workers are beneficial for innovation. The circulation of skilled workers is an important element in the analyses of regional innovation.

Os autores agradecem à Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) pelo apoio financeiro.

O objetivo deste artigo foi identificar sinais de excesso de confiança nos preços entre produtores de milho do Sul e do Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Entre outubro e novembro de 2008, 90 produtores foram selecionados para responderem questões relacionadas a seus conhecimentos do mercado futuro e a suas expectativas de preços. Uma grande parte dos entrevistados respondeu que não negociava contratos futuros por não possuir informação suficiente para isso. Os resultados revelaram que os produtores foram descalibrados quando estimaram os preços esperados na forma direta e indireta. Além disso, para a maior parte dos respondentes, a variância subjetiva obtida por meio dos questionários foi estatisticamente inferior à variância do mercado. Isto mostra que os produtores possuem uma percepção de risco inferior ao risco de mercado. Por fim, o artigo conclui que o efeito de excesso de confiança pode, parcialmente, explicar o baixo uso do mercado futuro de milho por parte dos produtores brasileiros, para garantir a proteção de preço do produto.
This paper aimed to identify signs of overconfidence among corn producers in the Southern and Central-Western regions in Brazil. Between October and November 2008, 90 farmers were chosen to answer questions regarding their knowledge of futures markets and price expectations. Most part of agents surveyed answered that they do not trade futures contracts because they do not have enough information. Results showed that respondents were miscalibrated when estimating directly-stated and the indirectly-stated expected prices. In addition, for most respondents, subjective variance for corn proves to be significantly less than the market variance, implying that producers perceive a risk that is lower than that of the market. Finally, the paper concludes that the overconfidence effect can partially explain the low use of futures markets by Brazilian corn producers to hedge their production