Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Cataloging-in-Publication data provided by the Inter-American Development Bank Felipe Herrera LibraryCuesta, José A.Using pseudo-panels to measure income mobility in Latin America / by José Cuesta, Hugo Ñopo, Georgina Pizzolitto. The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Inter-American Development Bank, or to any individual acting on its behalf. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, InterAmerican Development Bank.The Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues. To obtain a complete list of RES publications, and read or download them please visit our web site at: http://www.iadb.org/res. 3 AbstractThis paper presents a

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Everyone, across borders, race and gender, is affected by the global COVID-19 pandemic—but not equally. In this paper, we examine a burgeoning new literature discussing the employment effects of COVID-19. We explore the extent to which COVID-19 will exacerbate gendered employment disparities, income generation gaps, and, ultimately, poverty gaps, using a simple microsimulation methodology. We test our approach in Colombia, which has implemented an unparalleled number of mitigation measures and has reopened its economy earlier than regional neighbors. We find that COVID-19 increases the poverty headcount to a daunting degree (between 3.0 and 9.1 pp increases). Mitigation measures vary considerably in their individual impact (up to 0.9 pp poverty reduction). A fiscally neutral Universal Basic Income program would cause larger poverty reductions. Importantly, both men and women report similar poverty impacts from the pandemic and mitigation policies, reflecting the magnitude of the downturn, the design of interventions and our own poverty measure. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1057/s41287-020-00328-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The allegedly complex relationship between trust and victimization has rarely been modeled and, when done, the effect of trust on victimization has been found not statistically significant. This study finds otherwise, estimating an instrumental model with community data from Cali, Colombia. Cali’s dismal levels of victimization were only second to Medellin, the most violent city of the world in the 1990s. But Cali also pioneered a strategy of social capital formation as the backbone of a deliberate public policy to crack down on high levels of crime. This article first develops a model of victimization that includes interpersonal trust as determinant and then instruments interpersonal trust with district-level average trust. We argue that an individual-specific level of trust in his or her community members does not affect the community level of interpersonal trust in the margin. However, the levels – or perceived levels – of interpersonal trust in the community may affect the specific level of trust of an individual in other members of that community, along with personal characteristics and experience. Using GMM estimates, this study finds evidence of a relationship between interpersonal trust and victimization, statistically significant and negative in sign. The result is robust across specifications of trust, victimization, and estimating techniques. We conclude that increasing trust in trusting communities contributes to reducing victimization in its own right, although the effect is modest. Consequently, strengthening interpersonal trust is another bullet to combat victimization but it is not a silver bullet.

Experience with urban social protection programmes is relatively limited in the Global South. Extensions or duplicates of rural social assistance programmes do not reflect the distinct vulnerabilities of the urban poor, who face higher living costs and more precarious employment, and are not reached by social insurance schemes that are designed for formally employed workers. Neither the Sustainable Development Goals nor the New Urban Agenda reflect a specific focus on urban social protection. COVID-19 has exposed this major gap in coverage, given the disproportionate impact of lockdowns on the livelihoods of the urban poor. To ‘build back better’ post COVID-19, we propose rights-based national social protection systems with two components: categorical social assistance for non-working vulnerable groups (children, older persons, persons with disability) and universal social insurance for all working adults (formal, informal or self-employed), financed out of general revenues rather than mandatory contributions by employees and employers. These ideas are explored in the case of South Africa, which has comprehensive social assistance but inadequate social insurance for urban informal workers.