Enhancing pasture persistence is crucial to achieve more sustainable grass-based animal production systems. Although it is known that persistence of perennial ryegrass is based on a high turnover of tillers during late spring and summer, little is known about other forage species, particularly in subtropical climates. To address this question, this study evaluated survival of grazed tall fescue tillers growing in a subtropical climate. We hypothesized that hard tactical grazing during winter to remove reproductive stems (designated as 'flowering control'), and nitrogen fertilization in spring, would both improve tiller survival over summer, and thus enhance tiller density. This was assessed in two experiments. In both experiments, few tillers appeared during late spring and summer and so tiller density depended on the dynamics of vegetative tillers present in the sward in spring. In Experiment 2, flowering control and nitrogen fertilization both enhanced the survival of that critical tiller cohort, but the effects were not additive. Responses were similar but not statistically significant in Experiment 1, which had a warmer, drier summer and lower overall survival rates. Unlike grasses in temperate environments, persistence of tall fescue in this subtropical site appeared to follow a 'vegetative pathway'; i.e., new tillers were produced largely in autumn, from vegetative tillers that survived the summer.

RESUMENLas variaciones en el precio de la leche y de los alimentos concentrados y el efecto del clima sobre la producción de cultivos afectan la productividad rentabilidad y riesgo de los sistemas lecheros. El objetivo del estudio fue investigar la productividad, el resultado económico y el riesgo de diversos sistemas de producción de leche en la región Centro-Norte de Argentina. Se investigaron sistemas lecheros alternativos al sistema representativo de la región, explorando el efecto de incrementos en carga animal, incrementos en suplementación con alimentos concentrados y el efecto de utilizar diferentes sistemas de alimentación sobre la productividad y la rentabilidad. El enfoque elegido para el análisis fue la simulación con el uso de dos modelos matemáticos: uno para predicción del rendimiento de cultivos y otro para evaluación del sistema lechero completo. Se realizaron simulaciones determinísticas y estocásticas, i.e., con variación aleatoria del precio de la leche, de los concentrados y el rendimiento de los cultivos. Los resultados muestran que el sistema actual de la región no es rentable. Los sistemas alternativos con mayor carga animal y mayor suplementación resultaron en mayor producción de leche por hectárea y mayor resultado económico que el sistema regional actual. Sin embargo, la intensificación a partir del incremento de la carga animal y de la suplementación aumentó la exposición al riesgo. El efecto de la variación de precio de leche y concentrado fue mayor que el efecto del clima sobre el resultado económico.Palabras clave: estocástico, carga animal, modelo, precios, clima, leche. ABSTRACTVariations in milk and concentrate feed prices and the effect of climate on crop production affect productivity and profitability of dairy systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate productivity and economic results, and assess the risk of different dairy systems in the Central-Northern region of Argentina. Alternative dairy systems (other than the traditional system of this region) were studied, evaluating the effects of increases in stocking rate and use of supplementary feed, as well as the effect of using different feeding systems on productivity and profitability. Two mathematical models were used in this analysis: one model to predict crop and pasture production, and the other to evaluate the performance of the whole dairy system. Deterministic and stochastic simulations, i.e., with random variation in milk and concentrate feed prices, and crop yield, were performed. Results showed that the current production system of this region is not profitable. The alternative systems 152-162.

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