Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.

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The dataset presented here was collected by the GenTree project (EU-Horizon 2020), which aims to improve the use of forest genetic resources across Europe by better understanding how trees adapt to their local environment. This dataset of individual tree-core characteristics including ring-width series and whole-core wood density was collected for seven ecologically and economically important European tree species: silver birch (Betula pendula), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Norway spruce (Picea abies), European black poplar (Populus nigra), maritime pine (Pinus pinaster), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), and sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Tree-ring width measurements were obtained from 3600 trees in 142 populations and whole-core wood density was measured for 3098 trees in 125 populations. This dataset covers most of the geographical and climatic range occupied by the selected species. The potential use of it will be highly valuable for assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental conditions as well as for model development and parameterization, to predict adaptability under climate change scenarios.

Patterns of pollen dispersal were investigated in a small, isolated, relict population of Pinus sylvestris L., consisting of 36 trees. A total-exclusion battery comprising four chloroplast and two nuclear microsatellites (theoretical paternity exclusion probability EP ¼ 0.996) was used to assign paternity to 813 seeds, collected from 34 trees in the stand. Longdistance pollen immigration accounted for 4.3% of observed matings. Self-fertilization rate was very high (0.25), compared with typical values in more widespread populations of the species. The average effective pollen dispersal distance within the stand was 48 m (or 83 m excluding selfs). Half of effective pollen was dispersed within 11 m, and 7% beyond 200 m. A strong correlation was found between the distance to the closest tree and the mean mating-distance calculated for single-tree progenies. The effective pollen dispersal distribution showed a leptokurtic shape, with a large and significant departure from that expected under uniform dispersal. A maximum-likelihood procedure was used to fit an individual pollen dispersal distance probability density function (dispersal kernel). The estimated kernel indicated fairly leptokurtic dispersal (shape parameter b ¼ 0.67), with an average pollen dispersal distance of 135 m, and 50% of pollen dispersed beyond 30 m. A marked directionality pattern of pollen dispersal was found, mainly caused by the uneven distribution of trees, coupled with restricted dispersal and unequal male success. Overall, results show that the number and distribution of potential pollen donors in small populations may strongly influence the patterns of effective pollen dispersal. Heredity (2005) 94, 13-22.

Outcrossing rate, the rates of ovule and seed abortion, and levels of correlated paternity were estimated in a small population of Pinus sylvestris, a predominantly outcrossing conifer, and were compared with estimates from two widely dispersed woodlands of the same species, showing a range of densities. On average, seed trees of the small population showed an eight-fold higher selfing rate (25 vs. 3%) and a 100-fold greater incidence of correlated paternity (19.6 vs. 0.2%) than did trees from the large populations. No evidence was found of pollen limitation within the remnant stand, as suggested by ovule abortion rates. Investigation of the mating patterns in the small population, based on the unambiguous genealogy of 778 open-pollinated seeds, showed a large departure from random mating. Only 8% of the possible mating pairs within the stand were observed. Correlated paternity rate within a maternal sibship was negatively associated (rs = -0.398, P < 0.050) with the distance to the nearest neighbour, and shared paternity among maternal sibships was negatively correlated (rs = -0.704, P < 0.001) with the distance between seed trees. Numerical simulations, based on the estimated individual pollen dispersal kernel, suggest that restricted dispersal might have been the key factor affecting mating patterns in the small population and, together with low population density, may account for the observed mating system variation between the small and the large populations. The results of this study show that a severe size reduction may substantially affect the mating system of a wind-pollinated, typically outcrossed plant species.