Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

The dataset presented here was collected by the GenTree project (EU-Horizon 2020), which aims to improve the use of forest genetic resources across Europe by better understanding how trees adapt to their local environment. This dataset of individual tree-core characteristics including ring-width series and whole-core wood density was collected for seven ecologically and economically important European tree species: silver birch (Betula pendula), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Norway spruce (Picea abies), European black poplar (Populus nigra), maritime pine (Pinus pinaster), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), and sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Tree-ring width measurements were obtained from 3600 trees in 142 populations and whole-core wood density was measured for 3098 trees in 125 populations. This dataset covers most of the geographical and climatic range occupied by the selected species. The potential use of it will be highly valuable for assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental conditions as well as for model development and parameterization, to predict adaptability under climate change scenarios.

Aim To assess the effect of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity on the potential distribution of species under future climate changes. Trees may be adapted to specific climatic conditions; however, species range predictions have classically been assessed by species distribution models (SDMs) that do not account for intra-specific genetic variability and phenotypic plasticity, because SDMs rely on the assumption that species respond homogeneously to climate change across their range, i.e. a species is equally adapted throughout its range, and all species are equally plastic. These assumptions could cause SDMs to exaggerate or underestimate species at risk under future climate change.Location The Iberian Peninsula.Methods Species distributions are predicted by integrating experimental data and modelling techniques. We incorporate plasticity and local adaptation into a SDM by calibrating models of tree survivorship with adaptive traits in provenance trials. Phenotypic plasticity was incorporated by calibrating our model with a climatic index that provides a measure of the differences between sites and provenances. ResultsWe present a new modelling approach that is easy to implement and makes use of existing tree provenance trials to predict species distribution models under global warming. Our results indicate that the incorporation of intrapopulation genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity in SDMs significantly altered their outcome. In comparing species range predictions, the decrease in area occupancy under global warming conditions is smaller when considering our survivaladaptation model than that predicted by a 'classical SDM' calibrated with presenceabsence data. These differences in survivorship are due to both local adaptation and plasticity. Differences due to the use of experimental data in the model calibration are also expressed in our results: we incorporate a null model that uses survival data from all provenances together. This model always predicts less reduction in area occupancy for both species than the SDM calibrated with presence-absence. Main conclusionsWe reaffirm the importance of considering adaptive traits when predicting species distributions and avoiding the use of occurrence data as a predictive variable. In light of these recommendations, we advise that existing predictions of future species distributions and their component populations must be reconsidered.

SummaryResistance to cavitation is a major determinant of plant survival under severe drought and can be used to quantify species adaptive potential. Interspecific variation in this key trait is well defined in woody species, but intraspecific variation (level and structure) resulting from standing genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity has never been determined.Combining for the first time in situ characterization of natural populations and two reciprocal common gardens in dry and wet sites, we estimated variance components (phenotypic, genetic, environmental, and genetic 9 environmental) of cavitation resistance based on 513 genotypes of a Mediterranean pine, Pinus pinaster.Despite the selected populations being climatically contrasted, phenotypic plasticity in resistance to cavitation remained low and was essentially attributed to family level. Between-population variation in cavitation resistance for both phenotypic and genetic variation was limited.These results strongly suggest that cavitation resistance is buffered against genetic and to a lesser extent environmental variation (canalization) in maritime pine. Consequently, in a drier world, the increasing drought tolerance of Pinus species might be severely constrained by the low level of cavitation resistance variation, resulting in a large-scale loss of productivity.

Age and size at the first reproduction and the reproductive allocation of plants are linked to different life history strategies. Aleppo pine only reproduces through seed, and, as such, early female reproduction confers high fitness in its infertile highly fire-prone habitats along the Mediterranean coast because life expectancy is short. We investigated the extent of ecotypic differentiation in female reproductive allocation and examined the relation between early female reproduction and vegetative growth. In a common-garden experiment, the threshold age and size at first female reproduction and female reproductive allocation at age seven differed significantly among Aleppo pine provenances of ecologically distinct origin. Significant correlations among reproductive features of the provenances and the ecological traits of origin were found using different analytical tools. In nonlinear models of cone counts vs. stem volume, medium-sized trees (not the largest trees) produced the highest cone yield, confirming that, at the individual level, early female reproduction is incompatible with fast vegetative growth. The contribution of founder effects and adaptation to contrasting fire regimes may be confounding factors. But considering all traits analyzed, the geographical patterns of resource allocation by Aleppo pine suggest ecotypic specialization for either resource-poor (favoring early reproduction) or resource-rich (favoring vegetative growth) habitats.