An individual's IQ stanine, measured early in adult life, is monotonically related to his stock market participation decision later in life. The high correlation between IQ and participation, which exists even among the 10% most affluent individuals, controls for wealth, income, and other demographic and occupational information. Supplemental data from siblings are used with both an instrumental variables approach and paired difference regressions to show that our results apply to both females and males, and that omitted familial and non-familial variables cannot account for our findings. IQ also is related to diversification. High IQ investors are more likely to hold mutual funds and larger numbers of stocks, other things equal.
Gross profit scaled by book value of total assets predicts the cross section of average returns. Novy-Marx (2013) concludes that it outperforms other measures of profitability such as bottom line net income, cash flows, and dividends. One potential explanation for the measure's predictive ability is that its numerator (gross profit) is a cleaner measure of economic profitability.An alternative explanation lies in the measure's deflator. We find that net income equals gross profit in predictive power when they have consistent deflators. Deflating profit by the book value of total assets results in a variable that is the product of profitability and the ratio of the market value of equity to the book value of total assets, which is priced. We then construct an alternative measure of profitability, operating profitability, which better matches current expenses with current revenue. This measure exhibits a far stronger link with expected returns than either net income or gross profit. It predicts returns as far as ten years ahead, seemingly inconsistent with irrational pricing explanations.JEL classification: G11, G12, M41.
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