Recent research has challenged the long-standing hypothesis that forests in the Upper Midwest of the United States developed during wetter periods and retreated during dry periods. We explored this debate by examining patterns of tree establishment on an oak savanna in east-central Minnesota within the context of variable moisture availability and fire suppression. We used superposed epoch analyses (SEA) to evaluate the mean moisture conditions for a 21-year window surrounding tree establishment dates. Before effective fire suppression , 24 of 42 trees with pith dates (62%) grew to 30-cm height during dry years (Palmer Drought Severity Index , 21), versus only 5 of 42 (12%) that established in wet years (PDSI . 1). Significantly more trees established during dry periods (negative PDSI values) than would be expected with the proportion of wet-to-dry years (x 2 5 10.738, df 5 1, p-value 5 0.001). Twenty of the complete sample of 74 trees with pith dates (27%) established during drought in the 1930s. We hypothesize that dry conditions limited plant productivity, which in turn decreased competition between grasses and tree seedlings and reduced rates of accumulation of fine fuels, enabling seedlings to grow tall enough to resist subsequent fires. We recommend SEA as a methodological approach to compare historical climate conditions with the timing of regeneration success in other regions of forest expansion.

Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a native insect that defoliates needleleaf trees, especially balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and spruces (Picea spp.), in northern North America. Spruce budworm can defoliate millions of hectares of forest during an infestation, depressing regional economies that depend on the timber industry. Ecosystems, though, can benefit from spruce budworm because outbreaks rejuvenate the forest, maintaining optimal levels of primary production, and thereby carbon sequestration. Although many ecologists, entomologists, geographers, and resource managers have studied the effects of spruce budworm on spruce–fir forests throughout the region, no single explanation of what causes the number of insects in a forest to rise and fall is universally accepted. Spruce budworm populations can reach ‘outbreak’ levels, or densities high enough to defoliate and kill balsam fir and spruce on a landscape scale, on average every 30–40 years. We review the biology of spruce budworm, the processes that scientists follow to reconstruct spruce budworm outbreaks, the leading hypothesis to explain population dynamics and outbreak events, and the complexity of forecasting possible future trends of populations and distributions of spruce budworm. Reconstructions of past outbreaks help us understand their severity, frequency, and spatial synchrony, which might be linked in complex ways to climate, forest, and stand characteristics. Future spruce budworm dynamics are difficult to predict because the insect is part of a complex food web. In the coming decades, spruce budworm probably will survive climate change because it is adapted to a wide range of temperatures and precipitation amounts.

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