The average annual precipitation in the Pacific coast of Colombia ranges from 8,000 to 13,000 mm. The annual average (1960-2018) in Puerto López (Cauca) rain gauge (77°14’56.3”W, 2°50’43.0”N) is 13.159 mm making it, probably, the rainiest place on the Earth. Such a large amount of precipitation also means a sizeable diabatic heating source over western Colombia, which is responsible for driving the circulation in northern South America and Mesoamerica from mid-March to the end of November. We applied a simple conceptual model to study the heat-induced circulation. Our results indicated that the heating source over western Colombia produces a steady, low-level westerly inflow as a result of a half planetary wave propagating over Mesoamerica and the far eastern Pacific that generates two cyclonical flows. On the east side of the heating source, a Kelvin wave generates a low-level easterly flow from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Northern Amazon and Orinoco basins in a Walker-type circulation. This Rossby and Kelvin patterns create information pathways, which, in their turn, dominate the low- and upper-level wind fields. Documented observations about the atmosphere’s general circulation over northern South America and Mesoamérica are consistent enough to support the assertion that a set of waves trapped in the tropics induced by a heating source explains the circulation over Colombia and its surroundings.
Sub-seasonal to annual precipitation forecasts are of strong interest for hydrological and agricultural planning and outcomes. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal in the climate system. It develops around the tropical Pacific Ocean and is the most important mode of global climate variability (McPhaden et al., 2006;Nigam & Sengupta, 2021). There is an extensive literature on the teleconnections of ENSO to regional precipitation including future predictability (
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