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Multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are prominent and frequently used tools to model and measure cognitive processes underlying responses in many experimental paradigms. Although MPT models typically refer to cognitive processes within single individuals, they have often been applied to group data aggregated across individuals. We investigate the conditions under which MPT analyses of aggregate data make sense. After introducing the notions of (a) structural aggregation invariance and (b) empirical aggregation invariance of MPT models, we show that any MPT model that holds at the level of single individuals must also hold at the aggregate level when it is both structurally and empirically aggregation invariant. Moreover, group-level parameters of aggregation-invariant MPT models are equivalent to the expected values (i.e., means) of the corresponding individual parameters. To investigate the robustness of MPT results for aggregate data when one or both of the invariance conditions are violated, we additionally performed a series of simulation studies, systematically manipulating (a) the sample sizes in different trees of the model, (b) model parameterization, (c) means and variances of crucial model parameters, and (d) their correlations with other parameters of the respective MPT model. Overall, our results show that MPT parameter estimates based on aggregate data are trustworthy under rather general conditions, provided that a few preconditions are met.

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Somewhat counterintuitively, alcohol consumption following learning of new information has been shown to enhance performance on a delayed subsequent memory test. This phenomenon has become known as the retrograde facilitation effect (Parker et al., 1981). Even though conceptually replicated repeatedly, serious methodological problems are associated with most previous demonstrations of retrograde facilitation. Moreover, two potential explanations have been proposed, the interference and the consolidation hypothesis. So far, empirical evidence for and against both hypotheses is inconclusive (Wixted, 2004). To scrutinize the existence of the effect, we conducted a preregistered replication that avoided common methodological pitfalls. In addition, we used Küpper-Tetzel and Erdfelder’s (2012) multinomial processing tree (MPT) model to disentangle encoding, maintenance, and retrieval contributions to memory performance. With a total sample size of N = 93, we found no evidence for retrograde facilitation in overall cued or free recall of previously presented word pairs. In line with this, MPT analyses also showed no reliable difference in maintenance probabilities. However, MPT analyses revealed a robust alcohol advantage in retrieval. We conclude that alcohol-induced retrograde facilitation might exist and be driven by an underlying retrieval benefit. Future research is needed to investigate potential moderators and mediators of the effect explicitly.

Abstract. Somewhat counterintuitively, alcohol consumption following learning of new information has been shown to enhance performance on a delayed subsequent memory test. This phenomenon has become known as the retrograde facilitation effect ( Parker et al., 1981 ). Although conceptually replicated repeatedly, serious methodological problems are associated with most previous demonstrations of retrograde facilitation. Moreover, two potential explanations have been proposed, the interference and the consolidation hypothesis. So far, empirical evidence for and against both hypotheses is inconclusive ( Wixted, 2004 ). To scrutinize the existence of the effect, we conducted a pre-registered replication that avoided common methodological pitfalls. In addition, we used Küpper-Tetzel and Erdfelder’s (2012) multinomial processing tree (MPT) model to disentangle encoding, maintenance, and retrieval contributions to memory performance. With a total sample size of N = 93, we found no evidence for retrograde facilitation in overall cued or free recall of previously presented word pairs. In line with this, MPT analyses also showed no reliable difference in maintenance probabilities. However, MPT analyses revealed a robust alcohol advantage in retrieval. We conclude that alcohol-induced retrograde facilitation might exist and be driven by an underlying retrieval benefit. Future research is needed to investigate potential moderators and mediators of the effect explicitly.