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Resumen: El artículo comienza con un debate sobre el concepto de “contracción” y sus orígenes, fuera del ámbito del desarrollo rural. A partir de ahí, se muestra la distribución de las zonas rurales en contracción en toda Europa. A continuación, se describen los procesos socioeconómicos que impulsan el declive demográfico en las zonas rurales, utilizando tanto la revisión bibliográfica del proyecto ESCAPE como los resultados de sus ocho estudios de caso. Seguidamente, se describe de forma breve la evolución de las intervenciones de la UE para paliar los efectos del declive demográfico, y se hacen algunas observaciones sobre el panorama político/de gobernanza actual. Concluimos considerando cómo una mejor comprensión del problema y del proceso de reducción puede conducir a intervenciones más eficaces, en el contexto de una visión renovada a largo plazo para el medio rural europeo. Este último debe reconocer plenamente el creciente abanico de oportunidades a las que se enfrentan las zonas rurales, a medida que la COVID-19 cambia estas y se aceleran las transformaciones en el comportamiento laboral y en la geografía de la actividad económica, y se cumplen los anteriores cambios graduales en la tecnología y los mercados.   Palabras clave: Espacios rurales, declive demográfico, enfoque neo-endógeno, crecimiento inclusivo. Abstract: The paper begins with a discussion of the concept of “shrinking”, and its origins, outside the realm of rural development. Building on this, the paper shows the distribution of shrinking rural areas across Europe. Using both the project’s literature review and findings from its eight case studies the socio-economic processes which drive demographic decline in rural areas are then described. A brief account of the evolution of EU interventions to alleviate the effects of shrinking, and some remarks about the current policy/governance landscape follow. We conclude by considering how a better understanding of the problem and process of shrinking may lead to more effective interventions, within the context of a refreshed long-term vision for Rural Europe. The latter needs to fully acknowledge the expanding repertoire of opportunities confronting rural areas as COVID-19 changes in working behaviour, and the geography of economic activity, accelerate, and fulfil, previously incremental shifts in technology and markets.   Key words: Rural areas, demographic decline, neo-endogenous approach, inclusive growth.

It has repeatedly been shown that the Nordic countries are strongest when they stand togetherPREFACE 25

This paper compares indicators of polycentricity in a monocentric (MUR) and a polycentric urban region (PUR) in Denmark at two points in time (1982 and 2002). It describes how population, jobs and commuting indicators of polycentricity develop and interact over time. Both the MUR and the PUR tend towards more balanced development. The increasing size of the main node in the PUR is the only deviation from the general trend. The general tendency towards a more polycentric regional structure was most marked in changing interaction and commuting patterns. Inter-urban commuting increased, while intra-urban commuting decreased, leading to dispersion of commuters and a rapid increase in commuting across the region. Commuting distances were shortest in the polycentric region, but it also had the highest growth rates. In both regions, the balancing trend leads to a dispersal of commuting demand over an increasingly complex web of origins and destination nodes. This tendency compels us to question whether people's choice of residence is becoming increasingly irrelevant to their place of work. In relation to polycentricity and sustainability, this calls into question the degree to which proximity can be a valuable 'asset' in terms of planning sustainable transport outcomes connecting residence, jobs and service.

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