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Bayesian clustering methods have emerged as a popular tool for assessing hybridization using genetic markers. Simulation studies have shown these methods perform well under certain conditions; however, these methods have not been evaluated using empirical data sets with individuals of known ancestry. We evaluated the performance of two clustering programs, baps and structure, with genetic data from a reintroduced red wolf (Canis rufus) population in North Carolina, USA. Red wolves hybridize with coyotes (C. latrans), and a single hybridization event resulted in introgression of coyote genes into the red wolf population. A detailed pedigree has been reconstructed for the wild red wolf population that includes individuals of 50-100% red wolf ancestry, providing an ideal case study for evaluating the ability of these methods to estimate admixture. Using 17 microsatellite loci, we tested the programs using different training set compositions and varying numbers of loci. structure was more likely than baps to detect an admixed genotype and correctly estimate an individual's true ancestry composition. However, structure was more likely to misclassify a pure individual as a hybrid. Both programs were outperformed by a maximum-likelihood-based test designed specifically for this system, which never misclassified a hybrid (50-75% red wolf) as a red wolf or vice versa. Training set composition and the number of loci both had an impact on accuracy but their relative importance varied depending on the program. Our findings demonstrate the importance of evaluating methods used for detecting admixture in the context of endangered species management.

Predicting spatial patterns of hybridization is important for evolutionary and conservation biology yet are hampered by poor understanding of how hybridizing species can interact. This is especially pertinent in contact zones where hybridizing populations are sympatric. In this study, we examined the extent of red wolf (Canis rufus) colonization and introgression where the species contacts a coyote (C. latrans) population in North Carolina, USA. We surveyed 22,000km(2) in the winter of 2008 for scat and identified individual canids through genetic analysis. Of 614 collected scats, 250 were assigned to canids by mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing. Canid samples were genotyped at 6-17 microsatellite loci (nDNA) and assigned to species using three admixture criteria implemented in two Bayesian clustering programs. We genotyped 82 individuals but none were identified as red wolves. Two individuals had red wolf mtDNA but no significant red wolf nDNA ancestry. One individual possessed significant red wolf nDNA ancestry (approximately 30%) using all criteria, although seven other individuals showed evidence of red wolf ancestry (11-21%) using the relaxed criterion. Overall, seven individuals were classified as hybrids using the conservative criteria and 37 using the relaxed criterion. We found evidence of dog (C. familiaris) and gray wolf (C. lupus) introgression into the coyote population. We compared the performance of different methods and criteria by analyzing known red wolves and hybrids. These results suggest that red wolf colonization and introgression in North Carolina is minimal and provide insights into the utility of Bayesian clustering methods to detect hybridization.

No abstract

When hybridizing species come into contact, understanding the processes that regulate their interactions can help predict the future outcome of the system. This is especially relevant in conservation situations where human activities can influence hybridization dynamics. We investigated a developing hybrid zone between red wolves and coyotes in North Carolina, USA to elucidate patterns of hybridization in a system heavily managed for preservation of the red wolf genome. Using noninvasive genetic sampling of scat, we surveyed a 2880 km2 region adjacent to the Red Wolf Experimental Population Area (RWEPA). We combined microsatellite genotypes collected from this survey with those from companion studies conducted both within and outside the RWEPA to describe the gradient of red wolf ancestry. A total of 311 individuals were genotyped at 17 loci and red wolf ancestry decreased along an east–west gradient across the RWEPA. No red wolves were found outside the RWEPA, yet half of individuals found within this area were coyotes. Hybrids composed only 4% of individuals within this landscape despite co‐occurrence of the two species throughout the RWEPA. The low proportion of hybrids suggests that a combination of active management and natural isolating mechanisms may be limiting intermixing within this hybrid system.