An open access repository of Middlesex University research http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk Okoli, Justin and Watt, John (2018) Crisis decision-making: the overlap between intuitive and analytical strategies. Management Decision, 56 (5).

In addition to other cognitive tasks that need attending to, experienced fireground commanders are also faced with a crucial task of identifying various environmental and informational cues that could affect their performance on the fireground. Although these cues play a crucial role in activating the pattern recognition or intuitive decision-making process, the major challenge remains that they usually emerge from multiple sources, thereby increasing the cognitive load in working memory. Previous studies have shown that attending to multiple informational sources has serious implications for intuitive decisionmaking as it then becomes more difficult to select the most relevant cues amidst the rapidly evolving conditions. In order to determine how firefighters cope with this difficult task of processing information from multiple sources, 16 experienced fireground commanders were interviewed using a semi-structured critical decision method protocol. Following the insights derived from the knowledge elicitation process, this paper presents and describes an expert intuition model, which we termed the information filtering and intuitive decision-making model. The model attempts to conceptualize how experienced firefighters scan through multiple information sources from which they are then able to select the most relevant cues that eventually aid the development of workable action plans.

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area therefore calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this paper, we present and discuss the problem solving strategies employed by sixteen experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation toolthe critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge.

Purpose Being a novel public health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic presented world leaders with difficult options and some serious dilemmas that must somehow be negotiated. Whilst these leaders had limited knowledge about the coronavirus and how the pandemic would potentially evolve, they were still expected to make high-staked judgements amidst a range of uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to explore the response strategies used by various world leaders from the perspective of crisis leadership within the public health domain. Design/methodology/approach Secondary data was collected from research papers, policy reports and credible media outlets to examine the construct of crisis leadership within the context of the global pandemic. Findings The paper identified three cognitive antecedents to the COVID-19 crisis leadership failures, which helped to explain why certain policy decisions were successful and why others were less so. On this basis, a clear dichotomy was drawn between highly rated leaders and their less successful counterparts in relation to the management and governance of the coronavirus pandemic. Originality/value The uniqueness of this paper lies in its psycho-political approach, which offered insights into the cognitive undertones that underpin the three leadership failures that emerged from the distinct approaches used by world leaders to prepare for, respond to and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. The practical recommendations proposed in this paper are hoped to aid better decision-making for leaders faced with the task of managing future public health crises.

Design/Methodology/Approach This review examines the role of intuition as a cognitive tool to better manage complex crises. The paper draws on a case study in the aviation industry, the Hudson river incident, to advance the potency and value of intuitive expertise in crisis situations. Purpose Crisis managers operating in safety critical domains are often faced with difficult and exceptional conditions that may challenge their expertise and cause them to rely more heavily on their experiential knowledge. This review therefore provides insights into intuitive thinking and demonstrates its importance in crisis decision-making. Findings Evidence suggests that intuition arguably offers a better cognitive option to decision-makers in high staked and time-pressured crisis situations. The Hudson River case study further highlights why organizations should aim to train their personnel to become better intuitive thinkers. Originality/value This review challenges conventional classical decision theory, outlining its limitations in typical fast paced crises environments. The paper instead positions intuition as a scientific construct that holds important value for crisis managers in extreme conditions.