The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders

Abstract

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area therefore calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this paper, we present and discuss the problem solving strategies employed by sixteen experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation toolthe critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge.

Towards the Classification of Fireground Cues: A Qualitative Analysis of Expert Reports

“…This also holds true for the twelve ‘emotional’ incidents that involved loss of lives and massive loss of properties (UK= 5, Nigeria=7). We instead support the notion that experienced commanders are able to cope with multiple information sources by filtering out what they perceive to be irrelevant information or noise (see Okoli et al., ,b; for details). By so doing, the short‐term memory is preserved from information overload, thereby ensuring that officers are not distracted away from the main firefighting tasks.…”

“…However, we wish to clarify that the intention of the current article is not to discuss cross‐cultural differences between both groups of experts, but to report the type of cues identified and utilized by each officer on the fireground. We have elsewhere shown that a significant level of similarity exists between both groups of experts on the basis of the type of cues sought and utilized on the fireground (Okoli, Watt, Weller, & Wong, ; Okoli et al., ). For example, environmental cues such as wind velocity, wind direction and external temperature and fire‐related cues such as smoke colour, size of fire and flame texture were not only found to convey similar meaning to officers but also affected response effort alike, regardless of location.…”

Crisis decision-making: the overlap between intuitive and analytical strategies

“…1). Detailed description of the study and coding process have been discussed elsewhere (see Okoli et al, 2016a;Okoli et al, 2016b), only an evaluation of the model is done in this paper. Using the critical decision method as knowledge elicitation tool, the study examined how experienced actors made intuitive but largely accurate decisions in conditions of moderate to extreme task constraints.…”

A case study of disaster decision‐making in the presence of anomalies and absence of recognition

“…Although the commander had no “recognition” of this particular situation, we believe that he substituted his lack of “recognition” with his hazard‐specific expertise in radiation protection and nuclear safety. He therefore worked through an advanced version of “situation assessment” where experts gain a perceptual advantage as the events unfolded (Okoli, Watt, Weller, & Wong, 2016). It is also evident that his ability to run mental simulations based on his hazard‐specific expertise made the process of information retrieval from memory much easier.…”