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Abstract:The impact of climate change on the Niger Delta is severe, as extreme weather events have inflicted various degrees of stress on critical oil/gas infrastructure. Typically, assets managers and government agencies lack a clear framework for evaluating the vulnerability of these systems. This paper presents a participatory framework for the vulnerability assessment of critical oil/gas infrastructure to climate change impacts in the Niger Delta context. Through a critical review of relevant literature and triangulating observational and exploratory data from the field, this paper has developed a conceptual framework with three elements: (1) a preliminary scoping activity; (2) the vulnerability assessment; and (3) mainstreaming the results into institutional asset management codes. Scoping involves the definition of research aims and objectives, review of prevailing climate burdens and impacts, exploratory investigation, screening for new (planned) assets and selection of relevant infrastructure. The emphasis on screening for planned infrastructure is to facilitate the incorporation of sustainable adaptive capacities into the original design of identified systems. A conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment is presented as a robust systematic iterative model for the evaluation of selected assets using an appropriate methodology. In this study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied while mainstreaming as part of the research framework is emphasised to aid commercial implementation from an expert-based perspective. The study recommends the use of other suitable methodologies and systematic approaches to test the flexibility of the framework.

The impacts of climate change arising from flooding, the intrusion of high saline tidewater, rising temperature, wind storms, and rising Atlantic level are exacerbating significant threats to oil and gas critical installations in the Niger Delta. Understanding the hierarchies of vulnerable critical infrastructure could help assets managers in the industry to adopt sustainable adaptation measures against the looming impacts of climate change-induced stress on systems. In this article, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is implemented in prioritising vulnerable critical oil and gas infrastructure in the Niger Delta for effective and sustainable adaptation planning and response. A mix of an exploratory investigation involving interdisciplinary participants' engagement in focus groups were conducted in four multinational oil companies in the Niger Delta to elicit data for analysis. Participants in the study compared seven selected critical installations using an AHP questionnaire. A Mi-AHP spreadsheet analysis of stakeholders' perceptions revealed infrastructure vulnerability in hierarchical form: pipelines, terminals, roads/bridges, flow stations, loading bays, transformers/high voltage cables, and wellheads. The study shows that the vulnerability in the region is influenced by exposure, the presence of climate burdens, and proximity to inundated coastal areas below 4.5 meters above sea level. It also shows that critical systems are vulnerable due to interdependence and level of linkages that exist between directly vulnerable and non-directly vulnerable assets. Results also show that vulnerability in the region is due to critical perception, age and obsolescence, and weak adaptive capacity. This study furnished decision-makers in the oil and gas sector with information on which infrastructure is to be protected in terms of adaptation planning, investment, and implementation with particular attention on climate change.

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