Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium. However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed.

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The intensity of seed predation the invasive tropical legume Leucaena leucocephala by the bruchid Acanthoscelides macropthalmus was investigated in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The number of seeds damaged by A. macropthalmus as a proportion of total seeds available was found to increase the longer the pods remained on the tree. Seed predation ranged from a mean of 10.75% of seeds on pods that remained on the plant for 1 month and increased to 53.54% for pods that remained of the plant for 4 months. The low bruchid populations at high pod densities results in 'predator satiation'. However, pods dehisce over time and the proportion of pods available over time to the bruchid correspondingly declines. By the time bruchid densities build up, most pods have dehisced and the seeds consequently escape predation. As a result the number of seeds lost to bruchid damage increases only marginally over time. Despite the levels of seed predation observed over the course of the study, the number of seeds in the soil seedbank almost doubled over time increasing from 8.5 seeds m -3 to 15.5 seeds m -3 over a 4-month period. Levels of seed predation and addition of seeds to the soil seedbank were not correlated. The taxonomic (subspecies) status and apparency of host plants as measured by plant and patch traits (average plant height, density of podding plants and patch size) did not influence levels of seed predation. Pre-dispersal seed predation studies need to take into account the pod/seed retention behaviour of the plant. The ability of the bruchid to regulate the invasiveness of Leucaena through influencing its demography is likely to be diminished if the insect populations cannot increase rapidly enough to use the seeds before pod dehiscence.

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