Objectives The aim of this study was to develop prediction models for the individual-level impacts of cardiovascular events on UK healthcare costs. Methods In the UK Biobank, people 40–70 years old, recruited in 2006–2010, were followed in linked primary (N = 192,983 individuals) and hospital care (N = 501,807 individuals) datasets. Regression models of annual primary and annual hospital care costs (2020 UK£) associated with individual characteristics and experiences of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularization, incident diabetes mellitus and cancer, and vascular and nonvascular death are reported. Results For both people without and with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD), primary care costs were modelled using one-part generalised linear models (GLMs) with identity link and Poisson distribution, and hospital costs with two-part models (part 1: logistic regression models the probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with identity link and Poisson distribution models the costs conditional on incurring any). In people without previous CVD, mean annual primary and hospital care costs were £360 and £514, respectively. The excess primary care costs were £190 and £360 following MI and stroke, respectively, whereas excess hospital costs decreased from £4340 and £5590, respectively, in the year of these events, to £190 and £410 two years later. People with previous CVD had more than twice higher annual costs, and incurred higher excess costs for cardiovascular events. Other characteristics associated with higher costs included older age, female sex, south Asian ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, lower level of physical activities, unhealthy body mass index, and comorbidities. Conclusions These individual-level healthcare cost prediction models could inform assessments of the value of health technologies and policies to reduce cardiovascular and other disease risks and healthcare costs. An accompanying Excel calculator is available to facilitate the use of the models.

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Compared with the general advance of aeronautics in the past decade, or indeed with sailplane development in the 20's and 30's, progress in sailplane design has recently been very leisurely. This is due in part to the fact that there is less scope and partly because little effort has been expended. The most important advances in the art have been in the understanding and use of meteorological conditions which make soaring flight possible; sailplanes good enough for the purpose have existed.Before the Second World War the main design impetus came from Germany and Poland and in most current designs the German influence is still strongly evident. Since the war there have been outbreaks of activity in Switzerland (W.L.M.I., Moswey), Canada (where Shenstone and Czerwinski have inspired designs at Toronto) and in the United States. The total effort has not added up to that in pre-war Germany.

A sailplane designer will normally base a new design on his experience of the relative success of various earlier types in competitive flying and will be guided by a few simple performance criteria such as minimum sinking speed, glide ratio and the less precisely defined property of ‘penetration’ (this being, roughly, the ability to achieve a good glide ratio at a high forward speed). This empirical approach has resulted in the evolution of an aerodynamic form of considerable efficiency. It is not easy, however, to see precisely why the present form has proved so effective or what potential development lies ahead. One reason for this is that none of the criteria mentioned is an absolute index of efficiency nor does it represent the range of operations that a sailplane is called upon to cover in practice. A clearer insight demands a deeper analysis of the basic requirements for sailplane performance, to see whether a more effective index of efficiency can be found. Such an index is developed in this paper and the effectiveness of varying the main design parameters is examined with its aid.