No abstract

The impacts of different microphysics and boundary schemes and terrain settings on the heavy rainfall over western Myanmar associated with the tropical cyclone (TC) ROANU (2016) are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the microphysics scheme of Purdue Lin (LIN) scheme produces the strongest cyclone. Six experiments with various combinations of microphysics and boundary schemes indicated that a combination of WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) scheme and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) best fits to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data. WSM6-MYJ also performs the best for the track and intensity of rainfall and obtains the best statistics skill scores in the range of maximum rainfall intensity for 48-h. Sensitivity experiments on different terrain settings with Normal Rakhine Mountain (NRM), with Half of Rakhine Mountain (HRM), and Without Rakhine Mountain (WoRM) are designed with the use of WSM6-MYJ scheme. The track of TC ROANU moved northwestward in WoRM and HRM. Due to the presence of Rakhine Mountain, TC track moved into Myanmar and the peak rainfall occurred on the leeward side of the Mountain. In the absence of Rakhine Mountain, a shift in peak rainfall was observed in north side of the Mountain.

The aim of this paper was to characterize the southwest monsoon onset over Myanmar based on the model. The Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) was run for a period of 10 years (

Background Storm surge is one of the most severe disastrous hazards in the Southeast Asian region including Myanmar. In order to accurately and on time numerical prediction of a surge, it is a crucial task for disaster mitigation. Purpose The objective of the study is to examine the predicted storm surge heights sensitivity with varying water depth. Storm parameters considered in the study include pressure drops, radius of maximum wind and duration of the storm and landfall angles in the Myanmar coast. Method Traditional model for numerical prediction of the storm surge has some drawbacks such as a delayed intimation of expected storm surges. To overcome these shortcomings, this study used the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (IIT-D)-based surge model to explore the various factors of a surge in Myanmar. Results The sensitivity results from the study demonstrate that the shallowness of the water depth and obtuse landfall angle in the Rakhine coast of Myanmar produce the highest surge height. It also shows that a fast-moving cyclone made a larger surge than slower one. The effects of wind stress forcing reveal that high-pressure drops and radius of maximum wind generate a larger surge. The peak surges are computed by the prediction model which compared to the observed values and found to be the most accuracy of the results. Conclusion Thus, this surge model can provide an early (nearly 48 h) warming in the coastal regions of Myanmar. It can help to mitigate disaster from the consequences of storm surge in Myanmar by evacuating the local residents.