No abstract

Volcanic dome-building episodes commonly exhibit acceleration in both effusive discharge rate and seismicity before explosive eruptions. This should enable the application of material failure forecasting methods to eruption forecasting. To date, such methods have been based exclusively on the seismicity of the country rock. It is clear, however, that the rheology and deformation rate of the lava ultimately dictate eruption style. The highly crystalline lavas involved in these eruptions are pseudoplastic fluids that exhibit a strong component of shear thinning as their deformation accelerates across the ductile to brittle transition. Thus, understanding the nature of the ductile-brittle transition in dome lavas may well hold the key to an accurate description of dome growth and stability. Here we present the results of rheological experiments with continuous microseismic monitoring, which reveal that dome lavas are seismogenic and that the character of the seismicity changes markedly across the ductile-brittle transition until complete brittle failure occurs at high strain rates. We conclude that magma seismicity, combined with failure forecasting methods, could potentially be applied successfully to dome-building eruptions for volcanic forecasting.

No abstract

Volcanic ash is often deposited in a hot state. Volcanic ash containing glass, deposited above the glass transition interval, has the potential to sinter viscously both to itself (particle‐particle) and to exposed surfaces. Here we constrain the kinetics of this process experimentally under nonisothermal conditions using standard glasses. In the absence of external load, this process is dominantly driven by surface relaxation. In such cases the sintering process is rate limited by the melt viscosity, the size of the particles and the melt‐vapor interfacial tension. We propose a polydisperse continuum model that describes the transition from a packing of particles to a dense pore‐free melt and evaluate its efficacy in describing the kinetics of volcanic viscous sintering. We apply our model to viscous sintering scenarios for cooling crystal‐poor rhyolitic ash using the 2008 eruption of Chaitén volcano as a case example. We predict that moderate linear cooling rates of > 0.1°C min−1 can result in the common observation of incomplete sintering and the preservation of pore networks.