This paper empirically explores the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in the countries of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). To reach that goal, the paper utilizes panel data consisting of annual data covering the period 1988-2013 from 34 countries, including the six OECS economies, and estimates a dynamic panel growth model using the generalized method of moments (GMM). The empirical results show that although FDI positively affects growth, its impact is minimal when considered in isolation. In other words, its significant effect is rather indirect. There is also a strong and positive interaction between infrastructural development and FDI in enhancing economic growth, but FDI crowds out domestic investment. These findings have policy implications.

ResumenEn este artículo se explora empíricamente la relación entre la inversión extranjera directa (IED) y el crecimiento económico en los países de la Organización de Estados del Caribe Oriental (OECO). Para tal fin, se utilizan datos de panel que constan de datos anuales de 34 países, incluidas las seis economías de la OECO, correspondientes al período 1988-2013 y se estima un modelo de crecimiento de panel dinámico aplicando el método generalizado de momentos (MGM). Los resultados empíricos muestran que, si bien el efecto de la IED en el crecimiento es positivo, su impacto es mínimo si se considera aisladamente. En otras palabras, su efecto significativo es bastante indirecto. También existe una interacción fuerte y positiva entre el desarrollo de la infraestructura y la IED en el aumento del crecimiento económico, pero la IED desplaza la inversión interna. Estos hallazgos tienen implicaciones de política. Palabras claveInversión extranjera directa, macroeconomía, crecimiento económico, modelos econométricos, indicadores económicos, Caribe Clasificación JEL F21, F43, C23Autores

Purpose This paper aims to simulate the potential impact of increasing non-performing loans (NPLs) on capital adequacy, interest income and firm value of banks and credit unions in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using stress tests. Design/methodology/approach A financial stress testing model was deployed at the levels of individual financial intermediary (FI), sectoral loan portfolio composition, individual member country, and the ECCU collectively, to investigate the impact of NPL shocks on FI stability. Findings The authors find that shocks impact the capital adequacy of banks less than that of credit unions, but that firm value of banks is more susceptible to increases in NPLs. Interest income responses to NPL shocks were linked to credit exposure from the tourism sector, which also reduced capital adequacy more than other economic sectors. Findings show that while the COVID-19 pandemic occasioned some increase in NPLs, the magnitude of impact was significantly mitigated by pro-stability policies including loan repayment moratoria and restructuring, guidance on the distribution of profits and deleveraging by financial institutions leading up to 2020. Originality/value The paper is among the first to use stress testing on the Caribbean in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Past studies which have used stress test models in the region have not explicitly investigated the impact of credit shocks on risk-weighted assets or interest income as done herein, nor do they include credit unions in the modeling. The results offer novel evaluations as well as implications for FIs in other developing economies, especially those that share a comparable financial and economic architecture.