Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date. MethodsWe estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drugresistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level. FindingsOn the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4•95 million (3•62-6•57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1•27 million (95% UI 0•911-1•71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27•3 deaths per 100 000 (20•9-35•3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6•5 deaths (4•3-9•4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1•5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3•57 million (2•62-4•78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillinresistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributa...
Communication about genetic risk in families is an important issue for genetic counsellors. The objective of this study was to explore the barriers and facilitators in family communication about genetic risk. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with patients in the Northeast of Scotland who had attended genetic counselling for risk of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer and Huntington's disease, and with some spouses/partners. The interviews confirmed that the issue of disclosure was a problem for some, and that there were generic communication issues common to both groups. Telling family members about genetic risk was generally seen as a family responsibility and family structures, dynamics and 'rules' influenced disclosure decisions. A sense of responsibility towards younger generations was also important. The level of certainty felt by a person in relation to his or her own risk estimate also influenced what he or she could tell other family members. Communication within a family about genetic risk is a complex issue and is influenced by both pre-existing familial and cultural factors and individuals' responses to risk information. If genetic counsellors understood how these factors operate in individual families they might be able to identify effective strategies to promote considered decisions and prevent unnecessary emotional distress.
A statistical procedure for classifying word-initial voiceless obstruents is described. The data sel to which the analysis was applied consisted of monosyllabic words starting with a voiceless obstruent. Each word was repeated six times in the carrier phrase "I can say __, again" by each of ten speakers. Fast Fourier transforms (FFTs), using a 20-ms Hamming window, were calculated every 10 ms from the onset of the obstruent through the third cycle of the following vowel. Each FFT was treated as a random probability distribution from which the first four moments (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) were computed. Moments were calculated from linear and Bark transformed spectra. Data were pooled across vowel contexts for speakers of a given gender and input to a discriminant analysis. Using the moments calculated from the linear spectra, 92% of the voiceless stops were classified correctly when dynamic aspects of the stop were included. Even more important, the model constructed from the males' data correctly classified about 94% of the voiceless stops produced by the female speakers. Classification of the voiceless fricatives when all places of articulation were included in the analysis did not exceed 80% correct when the moments from either the linear or Bark transformed scales were used. However, classification of only the voiceless sibilants was 98% correct when the moments from the Bark transformed spectra were used. As with the stops, the classification model held across gender.
Although family communication is important in clinical genetics only a small number of studies have specifically explored the passing on of genetic knowledge to family members. In addition, many of these present exploratory or tentative findings based upon small sample sizes, or data collected only a short time after testing. Nevertheless, if health professionals are to develop effective strategies to help patients’ deal with communication issues, we need to know more about what actually happens in families. The aim of this commentary is to identify factors which appear to influence whether patients share information about genetic risk with relatives who are unaware of that risk, with whom they share it and how they go about it. The paper draws upon evidence and thinking from the disciplines of psychology (including family therapy), sociology, medicine and genetic counselling. It is presented under the following headings: disease factors, individual factors, family factors and sociocultural factors. It concludes by highlighting a number of key issues which are relevant for health professionals.
Acoustic and kinematic analyses, as well as perceptual evaluation, were conducted on the speech of Parkinsonian and normal geriatric adults. As a group, the Parkinsonian speakers had very limited jaw movement compared to the normal geriatrics. For opening gestures, jaw displacements and velocities produced by the Parkinsonian subjects were about half those produced by the normal geriatrics. Lower lip movement amplitude and velocity also were reduced for the Parkinsonian speakers relative to the normal geriatrics, but the magnitude of the reduction was not as great as that seen in the jaw. Lower lip closing velocities expressed as a function of movement amplitude were greater for the Parkinsonian speakers than for the normal geriatrics. This increased velocity of lower lip movement may reflect a difference in the control of lip elevation for the Parkinsonian speakers, an effect that increased with the severity of dysarthria. Acoustically, the Parkinsonian subjects had reduced durations of vocalic segments, reduced formant transitions, and increased voice onset time compared to the normal geriatrics. These effects were greater for the more severe, compared to the milder, dysarthrics and were most apparent in the more complex, vocalic gestures.
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