Recent wildlife population declines are usually attributed to multiple sources such as global climate change and habitat loss and degradation inducing decreased food supply. However, interactive effects of fluctuations in abundance of main foods and weather conditions on population densities and reproductive success have been studied rarely. We analysed long-term (1973–2018) data on Tengmalm’s owl (Aegolius funereus) and the influence of prey abundance and weather on breeding densities and reproductive success in western Finland. We found that fledgling production per breeding attempt declined and laying date of the owl population delayed during the period between 1973 and 2018. The breeding density of the owl population decreased with increasing temperature in winter (October–March), fledgling production increased with increasing temperature and precipitation in spring (April–June), whereas the initiation of egg-laying was delayed with increasing depth of snow cover in late winter (January–March). The decreasing trend of fledgling production, which was mainly due to starvation of offspring, was an important factor contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm’s owl study population. Milder and more humid spring and early summer temperatures due to global warming were not able to compensate for lowered offspring production of owls. The main reason for low productivity is probably loss and degradation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling which results in loss of coverage of prime habitat for main (bank voles) and alternative foods (small birds) of owls inducing lack of food, and refuges against predators of Tengmalm’s owls. This interpretation was also supported by the delayed start of egg-laying during the study period although ambient temperatures increased prior to and during the egg-laying period.

Physical condition is important for the ability to resist various parasites and diseases as well as in escaping predators thus contributing to reproductive success, over-winter survival and possible declines in wildlife populations. However, in-depth research on trends in body condition is rare because decades-long datasets are not available for a majority of species. We analysed the long-term dataset of offspring covering 34 years, male parents (40 years) and female parents (42 years) to find out whether the decline of Tengmalm’s owl population in western Finland is attributable to either decreased adult and/or juvenile body condition in interaction with changing weather conditions and density estimates of main foods. We found that body condition of parent owl males and females declined throughout the 40-year study period whereas the body condition of owlets at the fledging stage very slightly increased. The body condition of parent owls increased with augmenting depth of snow cover in late winter (January to March), and that of offspring improved with increasing precipitation in late spring (May to June). We conclude that the decreasing trend of body condition of parent owl males and females is important factor probably inducing reduced adult survival and reduced reproduction success thus contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm’s owl study population. The very slightly increasing trend of body condition of offspring is obviously not able to compensate the overall decline of Tengmalm’s owl population, because the number of offspring in turn simultaneously decreased considerably in the long-term. The ongoing climate change appeared to work in opposite ways in this case because declining depth of snow cover will make the situation worse but increased precipitation will improve. We suggest that the main reasons for long-term decline of body condition of parent owls are interactive or additive effects of reduced food resources and increased overall predation risk due to habitat degradation (loss and fragmentation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling) subsequently leading to decline of Tengmalm’s owl study population.

Specialist individuals within animal populations have shown to be more efficient foragers and/or to have higher reproductive success than generalist individuals, but interspecific reproductive consequences of the degree of diet specialisation in vertebrate predators have remained unstudied. Eurasian pygmy owls (hereafter POs) have less vole‐specialised diets than Tengmalm's owls (TOs), both of which mainly subsist on temporally fluctuating food resources (voles). To test whether the specialist TO is more limited by the main prey abundance than the generalist PO, we studied breeding densities and reproductive traits of co‐existing POs and TOs in central‐western Finland during 2002–2019. Breeding densities of POs increased with augmenting densities of voles in the previous autumn, whereas breeding densities of TOs increased with higher vole densities in both the previous autumn and the current spring. In years of vole scarcity, PO females started egg‐laying earlier than TOs, whereas in years of vole abundance TO females laid eggs substantially earlier than PO females. The yearly mean clutch size and number of fledglings produced of both POs and TOs increased with abundance of voles in the current spring. POs laid large clutches and produced large broods in years of both high and low vole abundance, whereas TOs were able to do so only in years of high vole abundance. POs were able to raise on average 73% of the eggs to fledglings whereas TOs only 44%. The generalist foraging strategy of POs including flexible switching from main prey to alternative prey (small birds) appeared to be more productive than the strictly vole‐specialized foraging strategy of TOs. In contrast to earlier studies at the individual‐level, specialist predators at the species level (in this case TOs) appear to be less effective than generalists (POs), but diet specialisation was particularly costly under conditions when scarcity of main foods limited offspring production.

Large brains in prey may select for adoption of anti-predator behavior that facilitates escape. Prey species with relatively large brains have been shown to be less likely to fall prey to predators. This results in the prediction that individuals that have been captured by predators on average should have smaller brains than sympatric conspecifics. We exploited the fact that Eurasian pygmy owls Glaucidium passerinum hoard small mammals and birds in cavities and nest-boxes for over-winter survival, allowing for comparison of the phenotype of prey with that of live conspecifics. In Northern Europe, main prey of pygmy owls are voles of the genera Myodes and Microtus, while forest birds and shrews are the most important alternative prey. Large fluctuations (amplitude 100-200-fold) in vole populations induce rapid numerical responses of pygmy owls to main prey populations, which in turn results in varying predation pressure on small birds. We found, weighed and measured 153 birds in foodstores of pygmy owls and mist-netted, weighed and measured 333 live birds of 12 species in central-western Finland during two autumns with low (2017) and high (2018) pygmy owl predation risk. In two autumns, individuals with large brains were captured later compared to individuals with small brains, consistent with the hypothesis that such individuals survived for longer. Avian prey of pygmy owls had smaller heads than live birds in autumn 2018 when predation risk by pygmy owls was high. This difference in head size was not significant in 2017 when predation risk by pygmy owls was reduced. Finally, avian survivors were in better body condition than avian prey individuals. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that pygmy owls differentially prey on birds in poor condition with small brains. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that predation risk imposed by pygmy owls on small birds in boreal forests varies depending on the abundance of the main prey (voles).

the effect of winter food availability, that is, the lack of food is assumed to affect juveniles (boxes occupied only in autumn) more than adults (boxes occupied whole summer).