Background To investigate the association between the Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) and Homeostasis Model Assessment of Beta-cell function (HOMA-B) with the incidence of diabetes and pre-diabetes subtypes. Methods A total of 3101 normoglycemic people aged 20–70 years were included in the 6-year follow-up study. Multinomial logistic regression was used to calculate the incidence possibility of isolated Impaired Fasting Glucose (iIFG), isolated Impaired Glucose Tolerance (iIGT), Combined impaired fasting glucose & impaired glucose tolerance (CGI), and Diabetes Mellitus (DM) per standard deviation (SD) increment in HOMA-IR and HOMA-B in the crude and multivariable model. Results In the multivariate model, an increase in one SD change in HOMA-IR was associated with a 43, 42, 75, and 92% increased risk of iIFG, iIGT, CGI, and DM, respectively. There was a positive correlation between the increase in HOMA-B and the incidence of iIGT; however, after adjusting the results for metabolic syndrome components, it was inversely correlated with the incidence of iIFG [Odds Ratio = 0.86(0.75–0.99)]. Conclusions HOMA-IR is positively correlated with diabetes and pre-diabetes subtypes’ incidence, and HOMA-B is inversely correlated with the incidence of iIFG but positively correlated with iIGT incidence. However, none of these alone is a good criterion for predicting diabetes and pre-diabetes.

BackgroundWe aimed to determine the predictors of regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes among subjects with pre-diabetes in a single model concurrently.MethodsThe present study included 1329 participants aged 20 to 70 years with prediabetes from the population-based cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, with a 10-year follow-up. Glycemic status at follow-up was categorized as regression to normoglycemia: fasting plasma glucose [FPG] of <5.55 and 2h-plasma glucose [PG] of <7.77 mmol/L, and not taking antidiabetic medications. Glycemic status at follow-up was categorized as progression to diabetes: FPG ≥7 or 2h-PG of ≥11.1 mmol/L, or taking antidiabetic medications. Glycemic status determined whether the patients remained in prediabetes category (isolated impaired fasting glycaemia [iIFG] [(5.55≤FPG<7 and 2h-PG<7.77 mmol/L); isolated impared glucose tolarence [iIGT] (7.77 ≤ 2h-PG<11.1 and FGP<5.55 mmol/L)]. With prediabetes as a reference, multinomial logistic regression was utilized to identify the determinants of glycemic changes.ResultsApproximately 40% of participants returned to normoglycemia (n = 578), and similar percentage of participants progressed to diabetes (n = 518). Based on the multivariable multinomial model, regression to normoglycemia was associated with age (relative risk ratio [RRR] = 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-0.99), female sex (RRR = 1.72; 95% CI, 1.18-2.50), high education level of ≥12 years (RRR = 2.10; 95% CI, 1.19-3.70), and combined IFG/impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) versus IFG (RRR = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.29-0.70). The risk of progression to diabetes increased with body mass index (RRR = 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.15), waist circumference (RRR = 0.97; 95% CI, 0.96-0.99), positive familial history of diabetes (RRR = 1.62; 95% CI, 1.07-2.45), and combined IFG/IGT versus IFG (RRR = 2.54; 95% CI, 1.71-3.77).ConclusionA small percentage of patients with prediabetes remain in this condition, but the majority go on to develop diabetes or regress to normoglycemia. Both directions had distinct predictors.

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