No abstract

A feature common to many models of vegetation pattern formation in semi-arid ecosystems is a sequence of qualitatively different patterned states, "gaps → labyrinth → spots", that occurs as a parameter representing precipitation decreases. We explore the robustness of this "standard" sequence in the generic setting of a bifurcation problem on a hexagonal lattice, as well as in a particular reaction-diffusion model for vegetation pattern formation. Specifically, we consider a degeneracy of the bifurcation equations that creates a small bubble in parameter space in which stable small-amplitude patterned states may exist near two Turing bifurcations. Pattern transitions between these bifurcation points can then be analyzed in a weakly nonlinear framework. We find that a number of transition scenarios besides the standard sequence are generically possible, which calls into question the reliability of any particular pattern or sequence as a precursor to vegetation collapse. Additionally, we find that clues to the robustness of the standard sequence lie in the nonlinear details of a particular model.

Banded patterns consisting of alternating bare soil and dense vegetation have been observed in water-limited ecosystems across the globe, often appearing along gently sloped terrain with the stripes aligned transverse to the elevation gradient. In many cases, these vegetation bands are arced, with field observations suggesting a link between the orientation of arcing relative to the grade and the curvature of the underlying terrain. We modify the water transport in the Klausmeier model of water–biomass interactions, originally posed on a uniform hillslope, to qualitatively capture the influence of terrain curvature on the vegetation patterns. Numerical simulations of this modified model indicate that the vegetation bands arc convex-downslope when growing on top of a ridge, and convex-upslope when growing in a valley. This behaviour is consistent with observations from remote sensing data that we present here. Model simulations show further that whether bands grow on ridges, valleys or both depends on the precipitation level. A survey of three banded vegetation sites, each with a different aridity level, indicates qualitatively similar behaviour.

In many dryland environments, vegetation self-organizes into bands that can be clearly identified in remotely-sensed imagery. The status of individual bands can be tracked over time, allowing for a detailed remote analysis of how human populations affect the vital balance of dryland ecosystems. In this study, we characterize vegetation change in areas of the Horn of Africa where imagery taken in the early 1950s is available. We find that substantial change is associated with steep increases in human activity, which we infer primarily through the extent of road and dirt track development. A seemingly paradoxical signature of human impact appears as an increase in the widths of the vegetation bands, which effectively increases the extent of vegetation cover in many areas. We show that this widening occurs due to altered rates of vegetation colonization and mortality at the edges of the bands, and conjecture that such changes are driven by human-induced shifts in plant species composition. Our findings suggest signatures of human impact that may aid in identifying and monitoring vulnerable drylands in the Horn of Africa.