Recent thinning and ponding of Arctic sea ice may have led to frequent, extensive phytoplankton blooms under sea ice.

Shifting ecosystem disturbance patterns due to climate change (e.g. storms, droughts, wildfires) or direct human interference (e.g. harvests, nutrient loading) highlight the importance of quantifying and strengthening the resilience of desired ecological regimes. Although existing metrics capture resilience to isolated shocks, gradual parameter changes, and continuous noise, quantifying resilience to repeated, discrete disturbances requires novel analytical tools. Here we introduce a flow-kick framework that quantifies resilience to disturbances explicitly in terms of their magnitude and frequency. We present a resilience boundary between disturbances that cause either escape from a basin of attraction or stabilization within it, and use the resilience boundary to build resilience metrics tailored to repeated, discrete disturbances. The flow-kick model suggests that the distance-to-threshold resilience metric overestimates resilience in the context of repeated disturbances. It also reveals counterintuitive triggers for regime shifts, such as increasing recovery times between disturbances, or increasing disturbance magnitude and recovery times proportionately. Author ContributionsMLZ and SI conceived of the flow-kick model of disturbance. All authors contributed to development of the model and analysis of the resulting dynamics. KM drafted the manuscript and SI, AHL, IK, VL, EB, and MLZ contributed to revisions.

Banded patterns consisting of alternating bare soil and dense vegetation have been observed in water-limited ecosystems across the globe, often appearing along gently sloped terrain with the stripes aligned transverse to the elevation gradient. In many cases, these vegetation bands are arced, with field observations suggesting a link between the orientation of arcing relative to the grade and the curvature of the underlying terrain. We modify the water transport in the Klausmeier model of water–biomass interactions, originally posed on a uniform hillslope, to qualitatively capture the influence of terrain curvature on the vegetation patterns. Numerical simulations of this modified model indicate that the vegetation bands arc convex-downslope when growing on top of a ridge, and convex-upslope when growing in a valley. This behaviour is consistent with observations from remote sensing data that we present here. Model simulations show further that whether bands grow on ridges, valleys or both depends on the precipitation level. A survey of three banded vegetation sites, each with a different aridity level, indicates qualitatively similar behaviour.

In many dryland environments, vegetation self-organizes into bands that can be clearly identified in remotely-sensed imagery. The status of individual bands can be tracked over time, allowing for a detailed remote analysis of how human populations affect the vital balance of dryland ecosystems. In this study, we characterize vegetation change in areas of the Horn of Africa where imagery taken in the early 1950s is available. We find that substantial change is associated with steep increases in human activity, which we infer primarily through the extent of road and dirt track development. A seemingly paradoxical signature of human impact appears as an increase in the widths of the vegetation bands, which effectively increases the extent of vegetation cover in many areas. We show that this widening occurs due to altered rates of vegetation colonization and mortality at the edges of the bands, and conjecture that such changes are driven by human-induced shifts in plant species composition. Our findings suggest signatures of human impact that may aid in identifying and monitoring vulnerable drylands in the Horn of Africa.