ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior.Methods780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients’ willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE questionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients’ medical records and a second questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level.ResultsBased on the estimated utility function, 81.8 % of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual participation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9 %). Of all individual choices, 74.1 % were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44.ConclusionStated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting.

The personalized prevention approach offers a system for integrated risk profiling and individualized health management that was well received in general practice. The client-centred approach, which was embedded in a local community setting, using a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback and linkage to regional health management and lifestyle providers proved feasible, and successful. Participating in the health risk assessment elicited actual behaviour change among follow-up survey respondents.

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