The need for renewable, sustainable sources of biofuels continues to increase as the world's population continues to grow. Using microorganisms as biofuel producers is one area that is being researched extensively for this purpose. Anabaena sp. PCC 7120 is a filamentous strain of cyanobacteria capable of fixing atmospheric nitrogen, and has been genetically engineered to produce limonene, a cyclic hydrocarbon which has potential as a next-generation biofuel. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of a theoretical next-generation production facility that uses genetically engineered Anabaena 7120 to produce limonene. The economic feasibility of a limonene production facility was analyzed using the Farm-level Algae Risk Model (FARM). This model is an integrated systems compilation of numerous technoeconomic models that has been used previously in several algal production scenarios. FARM simulated 10 years of operation for the production facility for two scenarios. The 1 st scenario used actual limonene productivity data (0.018 mg/L/d) from a genetically engineered strain of filamentous cyanobacteria, while the nd scenario used a 'best case' assumption that limonene productivity can be increased 100-fold (1.8 mg/L/d). It was determined that the average probability of economic success of the 1 st scenario at year 5 was 0%, while the average probability of success of the 2 nd scenario was 100%. Assuming no fractional reductions in OPEX and CAPEX, the average net present value (NPV) at year 5 of the 1 st scenario was-$588 million, compared to $392 million for the 2 nd scenario. Further analysis determined that a limonene productivity of 1.02 mg/L/d is needed to yield an NPV of 0 dollars at year 5. This study shows strong evidence that a next-generation biofuel production facility utilizing genetically engineered strains of filamentous cyanobacteria could become economically feasible in the future if strains are developed with increased biofuel productivities.

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Given its ability to yield predictions for very diverse phenomena based only on two parameters—body size and temperature—the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) has earned a prominent place among ecology’s efficient theories. In a seminal article, the leading proponents of the MTE claimed that the theory was supported by evidence from Pauly’s (On the interrelationships between natural mortality, growth parameters, and mean environmental temperature in 175 fish stocks. Journal Du Conseil International Pour L’Exploration de la mer 39:175–192) dataset on natural mortality, biomass, and environmental temperature for 175 fish stocks spanning tropical, temperate, and polar locations. We demonstrate that the evidence presented by the proponents of the MTE is flawed because it fails to account for the fact that Pauly re-estimated environmental temperatures for polar fish as ‘physiologically effective temperatures’ to correct for their ‘abnormally’ high natural (mass-corrected) mortalities, which on average turned out to be similar to (rather than lower than) the mortalities recorded for temperate fish. Failing to account for these modifications skews the coefficients from MTE regression models and wrongly validates predictions from the theory. It is important to point out these deficiencies given the broad appeal of the MTE as a theoretical framework for applied ecological research. In a recent application, the MTE was used to estimate biomass production rates of prey fish in a model of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) predation in Bahamian reefs. We show that the MTE coefficients may lead to a drastic overestimation of prey fish mortality and productivity rates, leading to erroneous estimations of target densities for ecological control of lionfish stocks. A set of robust mortality-weight coefficients is proposed as an alternative to the MTE.

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