Food availability is a key concern for the conservation of marine top predators, particularly during a time when they face a rapidly changing environment and continued pressure from commercial fishing activities. Northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) breeding on the Pribilof Islands in the eastern Bering Sea have experienced an unexplained population decline since the late-1990s. Dietary overlap with a large U.S. fishery for walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) in combination with changes in maternal foraging behavior and pup growth has led to the hypothesis that food limitation may be contributing to the population decline. We developed age- and sex-specific bioenergetic models to estimate fur seal energy intake from May–December in six target years, which were combined with diet data to quantify prey consumption. There was considerable sex- and age-specific variation in energy intake because of differences in body size, energetic costs, and behavior; net energy intake was lowest for juveniles (18.9 MJ sea-day–1, 1,409.4 MJ season–1) and highest for adult males (66.0 MJ sea-day–1, 7,651.7 MJ season–1). Population-level prey consumption ranged from 255,232 t (222,159 – 350,755 t, 95% CI) in 2006 to 500,039 t (453,720 – 555,205 t) in 1996, with pollock comprising between 41.4 and 76.5% of this biomass. Interannual variation in size-specific pollock consumption appeared largely driven by the availability of juvenile fish, with up to 81.6% of pollock biomass coming from mature pollock in years of poor age-1 recruitment. Relationships among metabolic rates, trip durations, pup growth rates, and energy intake of lactating females suggest the most feasible mechanism to increase pup growth rates is by increasing foraging efficiency through reductions in maternal foraging effort, which is unlikely to occur without increases in localized prey density. By quantifying year-specific fur seal consumption of pollock, our study provides a pathway to incorporate fur seals into multispecies pollock stock assessment models, which is critical for fur seal and fishery management given they were a significant source of mortality for both juvenile and mature pollock.

Summary1. Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark-recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible. 2. Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments. 3. We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this timeconsuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance from Alaskan Steller sea lion counts when sampling was conducted without replacement, the number of marked individuals was unknown, and individual heterogeneity was suspected as non-negligible. 4. In terms of estimator performance, our simulation experiments and examples demonstrated advantages of our proposed approach over previous methods, particularly when marked individual identification probabilities are low and individual heterogeneity levels are high. Our methodology can also reduce field effort requirements for marked individual identification, thus, allowing potential investment into additional marking events or resighting surveys.

This study describes the seasonal diet composition of the Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) in two estuaries, Padilla Bay and Drayton Harbor, in the central Salish Sea. Prey remains were recovered from harbor seal fecal samples (scats) collected at haul-out sites during spring and summer/ fall in 2006. Top prey taxa (≥ 25% frequency of occurrence) were compared between seasons, estuaries, and between estuarine and non-estuarine haul-out sites. Overall, prey from at least 26 taxonomic families were identified in 198 harbor seal scats. In Padilla Bay, the most common prey were gunnel (family Pholidae; 88.6%), snake prickleback (Lumpenus sagitta; 59.1%), Pacific staghorn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus; 50.0%), and shiner perch (Cymatogaster aggregata; 47.7%). Threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus; 95.5%) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi; 83.1%) were the most frequently consumed species in Drayton Harbor; shiner perch, snake prickleback, mammal, and Pacific staghorn sculpin also each occurred in ≥ 50% of samples from at least one season. Occurrences of top prey taxa varied by season, estuary, and habitat type. Diet composition suggests that harbor seals in Padilla Bay and Drayton Harbor foraged primarily within estuarine habitats such as those found near the haul-out sites. Temporal and spatial variations in diet appeared to reflect differences in the availability of prey taxa. This study also identifies mammals as a potentially novel prey item for harbor seals in Drayton Harbor.