Aims To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example. Methods Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology. Results and Conclusions While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.

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Aims The study's aim is to identify and classify the most important alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Poland between 2000 and 2020. Methods Policy analysis of Baltic countries and Poland, predicting potential policy impact on alcohol consumption, all‐cause mortality and alcohol‐attributable hospitalizations was discussed. Results All Baltic countries implemented stringent availability restrictions on off‐premises trading hours and different degrees of taxation increases to reduce the affordability of alcoholic beverages, as well as various degrees of bans on alcohol marketing. In contrast, Poland implemented few excise taxation increases or availability restrictions and, in fact, reduced stipulations on prior marketing bans. Conclusions This classification of alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries and Poland provides a basis for future modeling of the impact of implementing effective alcohol control policies (Baltic countries), as well as the effects of loosening such policies (Poland).