Using data from 11 major international markets that celebrate six cultural New Year holidays that do not occur on January 1, we find that stock markets tend to outperform in days surrounding a cultural New Year. After controlling for firm characteristics, an average stock earns 2.5% higher abnormal returns across all markets in the month of a cultural New Year relative to other months of the year. Further evidence suggests that positive holiday moods, in conjunction with cash infusions prior to a cultural New Year, produce elevated stock prices, particularly among those stocks most preferred and traded by individual investors.
Informed traders often use options that are not in‐the‐money due to higher potential gains for a smaller upfront cost. Thus, trading activity by option moneyness should be a gauge of informed option trading. We construct a dollar volume‐weighted average moneyness measure to capture option trading activity at different moneyness levels. Stock returns increase with this measure, suggesting more trading activity in options with higher leverage predicts future stock returns. Our results hold cross‐sectionally and at the portfolio level yielding a Fama–French five‐factor α of 12% per year for all stocks and 33% per year for high implied volatility stocks.
Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option‐to‐stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.
Within the past decade, two trends have emerged in the global microfinance industry. First, there has been a recent emphasis on financial sustainability. At the same time, microfinance institutions (MFIs) have begun to offer microsavings deposit services to their clients. Could there be a link between these two trends? As MFIs offer savings deposits, do they achieve greater financial sustainability? David Hulme (2008) asserts that Grameen Bank became more financially sustainable after it changed its business model to include microsavings. However, Hulme observes that Grameen Bank also moved away from its poorest clients when it made the shift to savings. This paper explores, as MFIs have switched to offering savings, whether or not MFIs have achieved greater financial sustainability and whether or not they have moved away from their poorest clients. The data examined were collected from the financial statements of Opportunity International MFIs. The results indicate that Opportunity International MFIs that offer microsavings are more financially sustainable than those that do not. Moreover, there is no significant evidence that, by offering microsavings, Opportunity International MFIs have abandoned their poorest clients. Opportunity International MFIs could provide a model of how microfinance institutions can improve their financial sustainability without compromising their core mission to serve the poor.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.