This paper describes the GISS‐E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS‐E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model components, while keeping atmospheric resolution the same. Model skill when compared to modern era climatologies is significantly higher than in previous versions. Additionally, updates in forcings have a material impact on the results. In particular, there have been specific improvements in representations of modes of variability (such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and other modes in the Pacific) and significant improvements in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Oceans, including sea ice. The effective climate sensitivity to 2 × CO2 is slightly higher than previously at 2.7–3.1°C (depending on version) and is a result of lower CO2 radiative forcing and stronger positive feedbacks.
The African continent continuously experiences extreme aerosol load conditions, during which the World Health Organization clean air standard of 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5 mass is systematically exceeded. Africa holds the world largest source of desert dust emissions, undergoes strong industrial growth, and produces approximately a third of the Earth's biomass burning aerosol particles. Sub‐Saharan biomass burning is driven by agricultural practices, such as burning fields and bushes in the postharvest season for fertilization, land management, and pest control. Thus, these emissions are predominantly anthropogenic. Here we use global atmospheric composition, climate, and health models to simulate the chemical composition of the atmosphere and calculate the mortality rates for Africa by distinguishing between purely natural, industrial/domestic, and biomass burning emissions. Air quality‐related deaths in Africa rank within the top leading causes of death in Africa. Our results of ~780,000 premature deaths annually point to the extensive health impacts of natural emissions, high mortality rate caused by industrialization in Nigeria and South Africa, and a smaller extent by fire emissions in Central and West Africa. In Africa, 43,000 premature deaths are linked to biomass burning mainly driven by agriculture. Our results also show that natural sources, in particular windblown dust emissions, have large impacts on air quality and human health in Africa.
• Tropospheric warming and ocean heat uptake by 2014 are smaller in GISS-E2.1 and closer to observed trends than in its CMIP5 predecessor. • GISS-E2.1 climate sensitivity is higher than in CMIP5 GISS-E2 but forcing by greenhouse gases is smaller. • Atmospheric trends vary among model configurations with the storage of heat beneath the thermocline.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2025 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.