This study investigates future changes of temperature, precipitation, and associated extreme events in the MENA region using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate over the CORDEX-MENA domain. Model capabilities to reproduce key observed regional climate features are first assessed, including heat waves, drought and high precipitation extremes. Projected changes indicate the intensification of heat waves number, duration and magnitude, and contrasted precipitation changes. A drying is projected in the north-west and moistening in the north-east along the Mediterranean side of the region. Projected regional warming is found at the rate of about 0.2 °C/decade to 0.5 °C/decade over land depending on the scenario. Drought is expected to increase in the northern half of the region independently from the index used, but with a higher rate in the case of the index accounting for both the effect of precipitation and temperature changes. ALADIN-Climate results corroborate previous studies projecting the MENA region to host global hot spots for drought in the late twenty-first century.

In this study, we evaluate trends in precipitation and temperature and their related extreme indices in Morocco based on a set of National Climate Monitoring Products defined the by the commission for climatology of the WMO. We use daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data from 30 meteorological stations distributed throughout the country and covering the period from 1960 to 2016. Statistically significant increasing trends in warm temperature events and a tendency towards decreasing cold extremes at both daytime and night are depicted across the country consistent with the generalized observed global warming. We found that the daily temperature in Morocco has risen with higher rates than the global scale. The depicted trend of 0.33 C per decade corresponds to a warming of approximately 1.1 C for the period 1984-2016. The annual mean precipitation and the standardized drought index show less spatially consistent tendencies despite the predominance of negative trends. Considering the effect of the warming in the analysis of drought evolution using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, we detected statistically significant trends towards dryer conditions in different regions of the northern half of the country. Analysis of the relationship between precipitation

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Air temperature conditions affect various aspects of human life through diverse pathways, such as health, agriculture, labour productivity, infrastructure and building constructions, economic production, and so on. To address better efforts at resolving this issue, decision‐making tools need to be developed to identify and prioritize areas where appropriate actions are required. The present paper identifies vulnerable areas in Morocco with a focus on three different aspects: high temperatures, low temperatures and daily temperature amplitude. Maps were created using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)‐developed Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) 30 year‐long daily maximum and minimum temperature data set. Several indicators as well as vulnerability indexes were defined and calculated. Maps showing the spatial distribution of these indicators were created. The results show that 78% of Morocco is considered to be non‐vulnerable areas to areas with low vulnerability; and 19% is characterized by moderate vulnerability to the effects of temperature. The remaining areas are characterized by high to extreme vulnerability: the most vulnerable areas are located in the provinces of Figuig, Jerada and Boulemane in the eastern part of the country, as well as in the provinces of Khouribga, Fquih Ben Saleh and Settat in the central part. This implies, for example, that national‐level planners in the agriculture and transport/infrastructure sectors in the central part need to take into account temperature vulnerabilities as they develop sector strategies and plans.