Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate

Driouech, Fatima; ElRhaz, Khalid; Moufouma-Okia, Willfran; Arjdal, Khadija; Balhane, Saloua

doi:10.1007/s41748-020-00169-3

Cited by 86 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…The findings of the study show that drought is expected to increase in the Northern MENA independent from which index is used, however, if the index accounts for both the effect of precipitation and temperature changes, then the increase of drought will be at a higher rate [71]. It is reported that the Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate results corroborate previous studies projecting the MENA region [70].…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…The study of Driouech et al [70] assessing future changes of climate extreme events in MENA using another regional climate model called ALADIN-Climate reported that projected changes for MENA indicate the intensification of heat waves number, duration and magnitude, and contrasted precipitation changes. North-West MENA is projected to get become drier while North-East MENA along with the Mediterranean side of the region is projected to get become wetter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

2021

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“…However, an increase in P anomalies corresponded to increased interannual variability in NDVI values, which means that vegetation is usually restored to a normal status after a dry spell ends-one exception being the SAR, where, over the period from 1982 to 2012, NDVI variability showed a declining trend and P an increasing trend. The annual P cycle in this region is tied to the passage of the West African Monsoon (WAM), which accounts for nearly 80% of the region's annual P amount [63,64], thus exposing the region (SSG and HoA) to adverse future climate vulnerability [17][18][19]63,65]. The result of NDVI decline over the SAR is consistent with results reported in [66].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…Although there is a lack of general consensus on global drought assessments [8][9][10][11][12], drought indices designed on the basis of the concept of atmospheric supply and demand have shaped our understanding of drought [3,7,[13][14][15]. Thus, within this context, the selfcalibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), a typical example of such a drought index [12], has been widely used for drought climatology studies at global scales [8,9] and for regional specific studies [15][16][17][18][19], among others [6]. The scPDSI, by design, is a physical-based drought index that incorporates antecedent P, moisture supply, and demand (i.e., potential evaporation (PET)) to account for surface warming effects on wet and dry spells [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Two Evapotranspiration-Based Drought Products and Their Mechanisms in Sub-Saharan Africa

et al. 2021

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Drought severity still remains a serious concern across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to its destructive impact on multiple sectors of society. In this study, the interannual variability and trends in the changes of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on the Penman–Monteith (scPDSIPM) and Thornthwaite (scPDSITH) methods for measuring potential evapotranspiration (PET), precipitation (P), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were investigated through statistical analysis of modeled and remote sensing data. It was shown that scPDSIPM and scPDSITH differed in the representation of drought characteristics over SSA. The regional trend magnitudes of scPDSI in SSA were 0.69 (scPDSIPM) and 0.2 mm/decade (scPDSITH), with a difference in values attributed to the choice of PET measuring method used. The scPDSI and remotely sensed-based anomalies of P and NDVI showed wetting and drying trends over the period 1980–2012 with coefficients of trend magnitudes of 0.12 mm/decade (0.002 mm/decade). The trend analysis showed increased drought events in the semi-arid and arid regions of SSA over the same period. A correlation analysis revealed a strong relationship between the choice of PET measuring method and both P and NDVI anomalies for monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons. The correlation analysis of the choice of PET measuring method with SST anomalies indicated significant positive and negative relationships. This study has demonstrated the applicability of multiple data sources for drought assessment and provides useful information for regional drought predictability and mitigation strategies.

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“…This is pursued through the Middle East-North Africa hub of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), i.e., MENA-CORDEX (http://mena-cordex.cyi.ac.cy/). Although there is an increasing number of MENA-CORDEX studies focusing on individual model optimization and validation [33][34][35][36][37][38][39] , as well as several future projections for the region 19,[40][41][42] , here we present a multi-model ensemble approach. The main objectives of our study are (i) to evaluate the ability of this multi-model ensemble to simulate the MENA climate with a focus on temperature extremes in the warm season, (ii) to project heatwave characteristics for the MENA region under a scenario of high greenhouse gas concentrations, and (iii) to estimate the potential exposure of the population to extreme thermal conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

et al. 2021

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Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 °C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.

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Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate

Cited by 86 publications

References 104 publications

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Two Evapotranspiration-Based Drought Products and Their Mechanisms in Sub-Saharan Africa

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

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