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In January 2011, South Sudan voted to declare the independence. This article argues that the impending emergence of two new nation-states has been influenced by two developments: the rise of political Islam and the failure of democratization, and flaws with the implementation of the 2005 peace agreement. Drawing on the literature on secession and conflict resolution, the article focuses on the probability of renewed civil war following the secession of South Sudan. It outlines a framework for identifying the potential for future civil conflict, and offers an analysis of potential scenarios following the partition of the country in July 2011.

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