BackgroundOverdoses caused by synthetic mu-opioid receptor (MOR) agonists such as fentanyl are causing increasing mortality in the United States. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have complex effects on public health, including opioid use disorders (OUD). It is unclear whether recent increases in mortality caused by synthetic opioids have reached a plateau (i.e., a stable period), after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodThis study examined provisional overdose mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for synthetic opioids excluding methadone (code T40.4; monthly data available from 39 States, plus New York City and Washington DC), for June 2019–November 2021. Data were first examined as crude mortality rates. The presence of a maximum plateau was analyzed for the last 4 months of available data. For authorities in which a plateau in mortality was detected, sigmoidal Boltzmann equations were used to model parameters of this phenomenon (e.g., level of the plateau).ResultsAt the end of the study period, all but one authority (New Hampshire) reported increases in mortality rates for synthetic opioids, compared to the baseline month of June 2019 (range: 111–745% of baseline). A plateau was observed over the last 4 months of the study period (Aug 2021–Nov 2021) in 29 of the authorities. Ten other authorities had not reached a stable plateau at the end of the study period. For the authorities where a plateau was detected, a sigmoidal Boltzmann model revealed a fitted maximum of 262% rise in mortality over the study period, from the baseline month. The midpoint in the rise in mortality was fitted in September 2020. After separation of data into census regions, the highest plateau was observed in the West region, followed by South, Midwest, and Northeast (fitted plateau values were 409, 262, 204, and 149% of baseline, respectively).DiscussionThere were increases in overdose mortality due to synthetic opioids across most states, ranging considerably in magnitude. A plateau in overdose mortality was detected at the end of the study period in most of these authorities. The reasons for these plateaus should be explored, in order to develop optimized public health interventions.

Persons with dual severe opioid and cocaine use disorders are at risk of considerable morbidity, and the bidirectional relationship of escalation of mu-opioid agonists and cocaine use is not well understood. The aim of this study was to examine the bidirectional relationship between escalation of heroin and cocaine use in volunteers dually diagnosed with opioid and cocaine dependence (OD + CD). Volunteers from New York with OD + CD (total n = 295; male = 182, female = 113; age ≥18 years) were interviewed with the Structured Clinical Interview for the DSM–IV Axis I Disorders and Kreek–McHugh–Schluger–Kellogg scales for dimensional measures of drug exposure, which also collect ages of 1st use and onset of heaviest use. Time of escalation was defined as age of onset of heaviest use minus age of 1st use in whole years. Times of escalation of heroin and cocaine were positively correlated in both men (Spearman r = .34, 95% confidence interval [CI: .17, .48], p < .0001) and women (Spearman r = .51, [.27, .50], p < .0001) volunteers. After we adjusted for demographic variables, a Cox regression showed that time of cocaine escalation was a predictor of time of heroin escalation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.97, 95% CI [0.95, 0.99], p = .003). Another Cox regression showed that this relationship is bidirectional, because time of heroin escalation was also a predictor of time of cocaine escalation (HR = 0.98, [0.96–0.99], p = .016). In these adjusted models, gender was not a significant predictor of time of escalation of either heroin or cocaine. Therefore, escalation did not differ robustly by gender when adjusting for demographics and other major variables. Overall, rapid escalation of cocaine use was a predictor of rapid escalation of heroin use, and vice versa, in persons with dual severe opioid and cocaine use disorders. These findings suggest a shared vulnerability to rapid escalation of these 2 drugs in persons with dual severe opioid and cocaine use disorders.

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