Correlations between aragonite saturation state (ΩAr) and calcification have been identified in many laboratory manipulation experiments aiming to assess biological responses to ocean acidification (OA). These relationships have been used with projections of ΩAr under continued OA to evaluate potential impacts on marine calcifiers. Recent work suggests, however, that calcification in some species may be controlled by the ratio of bicarbonate to hydrogen ion, or the substrate‐to‐inhibitor ratio (SIR), rather than ΩAr. SIR and ΩAr are not always positively correlated in the natural environment, which means that ΩAr can be a poor indicator of the calcifying environment when ΩAr‐>1. Highly variable carbonate chemistry in the coastal zone challenges our ability to monitor fluctuations in ΩAr, SIR, and the ΩAr‐SIR relationship making it difficult to assess biological OA exposures and vulnerability. Careful consideration of natural variability throughout ocean environments is required to accurately determine the influence of OA on biological calcification.

Since the 1970s, Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, has experienced an increase in detections of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in shellfish due to blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Alexandrium. Natural patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and changes in local environmental factors, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature, have been linked to the observed increase in PSTs. However, the lack of observations of PSTs in shellfish prior to the 1950s has inhibited statistical assessments of longer-term trends in climate and environmental conditions on Alexandrium blooms. After a bloom, Alexandrium cells can enter a dormant cyst stage, which settles on the seafloor and then becomes entrained into the sedimentary record. In this study, we created a record of Alexandrium spp. cysts from a sediment core obtained from Sequim Bay, Puget Sound. Cyst abundances ranged from 0 to 400 cysts · cm(-3) and were detected down-core to a depth of 100 cm, indicating that Alexandrium has been present in Sequim Bay since at least the late 1800s. The cyst record allowed us to statistically examine relationships with available environmental parameters over the past century. Local air temperature and sea surface temperature were positively and significantly correlated with cyst abundances from the late 1800s to 2005; no significant relationship was found between PDO and cyst abundances. This finding suggests that local environmental variations more strongly influence Alexandrium population dynamics in Puget Sound when compared to large-scale changes.

Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate‐driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate‐driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 107 km2, n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km2, n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate‐related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate‐related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate‐driven ocean change. Our findings reveal that highly cited biological studies are rarely conducted on scales that match those of physical and chemical studies. Rather, we suggest a need for measuring responses at biologically relevant scales.

Many marine protists produce a benthic resting stage during their life history. This non-motile cyst stage can either germinate near the sediment surface to provide the inoculum for subsequent blooms or, be buried by sediment deposits over time and entrained into the sedimentary record.

Changing ocean conditions, such as ocean acidification, hypoxia, and ocean warming, are impacting marine ecosystems and posing a variety of immediate and future challenges for natural resource managers and affiliated industries. In order to successfully facilitate adaptation and mitigation responses to changing ocean conditions, research efforts and synthesis products should be developed in collaboration with resource managers and decision makers. Using interviews and surveys, we sought to advance collaborative science approaches by identifying the most pressing concerns, barriers, and research and monitoring needs of natural resource managers in Washington State, USA, where marine waters are particularly vulnerable to changing ocean conditions. Survey participants indicated that they are most concerned by ocean acidification, followed by water temperature and hypoxia. Our findings reveal a desire to prioritize laboratory and in situ studies to identify survival thresholds of ecologically or commercially important organisms, specifically zooplankton, fish, Dungeness crab, and conditions that promote harmful algal blooms. Scientific literature and in-person workshops and meetings were the preferred way for survey participants to learn about new science and affiliated results. Our findings highlight a need for continued and expanded monitoring and research efforts, the development of interpretive science products for resource managers, and enhanced communication between entities before information on changing ocean conditions can be effectively incorporated into resource management and policy decisions.