Recent years have seen a rapid expansion in the ability of earth system models to describe and predict the physical state of the ocean. Skilful forecasts ranging from seasonal (3 months) to decadal (5-10 years) time scales are now a reality. With the advance of these forecasts of ocean physics, the first generation of marine ecological forecasts has started to emerge. Such forecasts are potentially of great value in the management of living marine resources and for all of those who are dependent on the ocean for both nutrition and their livelihood; however, this is still a field in its infancy. We review the state of the art in this emerging field and identify the lessons that can be learnt and carried forward from these pioneering efforts. The majority of this first wave of products are forecasts of spatial distributions, possibly reflecting the inherent suitability of this response variable to the task of forecasting. Promising developments are also seen in forecasting fish-stock recruitment where, despite well-recognized challenges in understanding and predicting this response, new process knowledge and model approaches that could form a basis for forecasting are becoming available. Forecasts of phenology and coral-bleaching events are also being applied to monitoring and industry decisions. Moving marine ecological forecasting forward will require striking a balance between what is feasible and what is useful. We propose here a set of criteria to quickly identify "low-hanging fruit" that can potentially be predicted; however, ensuring the usefulness of forecast products also requires close collaboration with actively engaged end-users. Realizing the full potential of marine ecological forecasting will require bridging the gaps between marine ecology and climatology on the one-hand, and between science and end-users on the other. Nevertheless, the successes seen thus far and the potential to develop further products suggest that the field of marine ecological forecasting can be expected to flourish in the coming years.

The cold ice shelf water (ISW) that formed below the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the southwestern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, escapes the ice shelf cavity through the Filchner Depression and spills over its sill at a rate of 1.6 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv [ 10 6 m 3 s 21 ), thus contributing significantly to the production of Weddell Sea Bottom Water. Here, the authors examine all available observational data from the region-including five year-long time series of mooring data from the Filchner sill-to examine the seasonal variability of the outflow. The temperature of the ISW outflow is found to vary seasonally by 0.078C with a maximum in April.The accompanying signal in salinity causes a seasonal signal in density of 0.03-0.04 kg m 23 , potentially changing the penetration depth of the ISW plume by more than 500 m. Contrary to recent modeling, the observations show no seasonal variability in outflow velocity. The seasonality observed at the sill is, at least partly, due to the admixture of high-salinity shelf water from the Berkner Bank. Observations and numerical modeling suggest, however, seasonal signals in the circulation upstream (i.e., in the ice shelf cavity and in the Filchner Depression) that-although processes and linkages are unclear-are likely to contribute to the seasonal signal observed at the sill. In the plume region downstream of the sill, the source variability is apparent only within the very densest portions of the ISW plume. In the more diluted part of the plume, the source variability is overcome by the seasonality in the properties of the water entrained at the shelf break. This will have implications for the properties of the generated bottom waters.

Observations (1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991) of distributions of pelagic juvenile Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua L.) show that up to 1/3 of the year class are dispersed off the continental shelf and into the deep Norwegian Sea while on the way from the spring-spawning areas along the Norwegian coast to the autumn-settlement areas in the Barents Sea. The fate of this variable fraction of pelagic juveniles off-shelf has been an open question ever since Johan Hjort's (1914) seminal work. We have examined both the mechanisms causing offspring off-shelf transport, and their subsequent destiny using an individual-based biophysical model applied to quantify growth and dispersal. Our results show, consistently with the observations, that total off-shelf transport is highly variable between years and may be up to 27.4%. Offspring from spawning grounds around Lofoten have a higher chance of being displaced off the shelf. The off-shelf transport is dominated by episodic events where frequencies and dates vary between years. Northeasterly wind conditions over a 3-7-day period prior to the off-shelf events are a good proxy for dispersal of offspring off the shelf. Offspring transported into the open ocean are on average carried along three following routes: back onto the adjacent eastern shelves and into the Barents Sea (36.9%), recirculating within the Lofoten Basin (60.7%), or drifting northwest to the northeast Greenland shelf (2.4%). For the latter fraction the transport may exceed 12% depending on year. Recent investigations have discovered distributions of young cod on the northeast Greenland shelf indicating that conditions may support survival for Northeast Arctic cod offspring.