The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

We analyzed data sets on phytomass production, basal cover, and monthly precipitation of a semiarid grassland in South Africa for good, medium, and poor rangeland condition (a) to investigate whether phytomass production per unit of basal cover differed among rangeland conditions, (b) to quantify the time scales of a carryover effect from production in previous months, and (c) to construct predictive models for monthly phytomass. Finally, we applied the best models to a 73-year data set of monthly precipitation data to study the long-term variability of grassland production. Our results showed that mean phytomass production per unit of basal cover did not vary significantly among the rangeland conditions-that is, vegetated patches in degraded grassland have approximately the same production as vegetated patches in grassland in good condition. Consequently, the stark decline in production with increasing degradation is a first-order effect of reduced basal area. Current-year precipitation accounted for 64%, 62%, and 36% of the interannual variation in phytomass production for good, medium, and poor condition, respectively. We found that 61%, 68%, and 33%, respectively, of the unexplained variation is related to a memory index that combines mean monthly temperature and a memory of past precipitations. We found a carryover effect in production from the previous 4 years for grassland in good condition and from the previous 1 or 3S month for grassland in medium and poor condition. The memory effect amplified the response of production to changes in precipitation due to alternation of prolonged periods of dry or wet years/months at the time scale of the memory. The interannual variability in phytomass production per unit basal cover (coefficient of variation [CV] ϭ 0.42-0.50 for our 73-year prediction, CV ϭ 0.57-0.71 for the 19-year data) was greater than the corresponding temporal variability in seasonal rainfall (CV ϭ 0.29).

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and its sister conventions, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity, all aim to halt or mitigate the deterioration of the ecological processes on which life depends. Sustainable land management (SLM) is fundamental to achieving the goals of all three Conventions. Changes in land management undertaken to address dryland degradation and desertification can simultaneously reduce net greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to conservation of biodiversity. Management to protect and enhance terrestrial carbon stocks, both in vegetation and soil, is of central importance to all three conventions. Protection of biodiversity conveys stability and resilience to agro-ecosystems and increases carbon storage potential of dryland systems. SLM improves livelihoods of communities dependent on the land. Despite these complementarities between the three environmental goals, tradeoffs often arise in their pursuit. The importance of human-environment interactions to the condition of land compels attention to adaptive management. In order to reconcile concerns and agendas at a higher strategic level, identification of synergies, conflicts, trade-offs, interconnections, feedbacks and spillover effects among multiple objectives, drivers, actions, policies and time horizons are crucial. Once these issues are transparent, coordinated action can be put into place across the three multilateral environmental agreements in the development of strategies and policy measures to support SLM.

Although sustainable land management (SLM) is widely promoted to prevent and mitigate land degradation and desertification, its monitoring and assessment (M&A) has received much less attention. This paper compiles methodological approaches which to date have been little reported in the literature. It draws lessons from these experiences and identifies common elements and future pathways as a basis for a global approach. The paper starts with local level methods where the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) framework catalogues SLM case studies. This tool has been included in the local level assessment of Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) and in the EU-DESIRE project. Complementary site-based approaches can enhance an ecological process-based understanding of SLM variation. At national and sub-national levels, a joint WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE spatial assessment based on land use systems identifies the status and trends of degradation and SLM, including causes, drivers and impacts on ecosystem services. Expert consultation is combined with scientific evidence and enhanced where necessary with secondary data and indicator databases. At the global level, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) knowledge from the land (KM:Land) initiative uses indicators to demonstrate impacts of SLM investments. Key lessons learnt include the need for a multi-scale approach, making use of common indicators and a variety of information sources, including scientific data and local knowledge through participatory methods. Methodological consistencies allow cross-scale analyses, and findings are analysed and documented for use by decision-makers at various levels. Effective M&A of SLM [e.g. for United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)] requires a comprehensive methodological framework agreed by the major players.

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