Policy reforms to liberalize agricultural markets in developing countries are likely to influence both the level and the variability of prices. While considerable attention has been given to the impact of changes in price level on soil and water conservation, there has been relatively little analysis of the role of price variability in conservation decisions. We present a model of investment under uncertainty to analyze the effect of both level and variability of prices on the decision to invest in conservation. The model is applied to adoption of fanya juu terraces in eastern Kenya. Copyright 1998, Oxford University Press.

In the absence of organized formal public or private sector, finding an innovative alternative seed delivery remains a key challenge. ICARDA initiated a novel approach of establishing farmer-led village-based seed enterprises (VBSEs) to ensure rapid access to quality seed of adapted new crop varieties under the Alternative Livelihoods Program (ALP-E) on integrated staple crop development in eastern Afghanistan. This article describes VBSEs, their technical performance, profitability, and impact, and assesses their sustainability as alternative options in Afghanistan. The technical performance of VBSEs showed that they collectively produced 1,060 and 2,170 MT quality seed of wheat, rice, mung bean, and potato in 2006/7 and in 2007/8, respectively. Average purity and germination of seed produced was 98.67 and 93.47%, respectively, in 2006/7 and 98.13 and 91.25% in the same order for 2007/8. It is evident from the profitability analysis of VBSEs' seed operations that all were economically viable by breaking even and covering fixed and variable costs. The net profit from seed business was $315,531 for 15 VBSEs in 2006/7 and it reachedThis article resulted from a collaborative effort with MAIL and support of ALP/E through USAID and the work of dedicated provincial coordinators of Kunar, Laghman and Nangarhar and VBSE facilitators and member farmers during the project implementation for which they are gratefully acknowledged. Sustainability of Village-Based Seed Enterprises 139$1, 311,060 in 2007/8 for 17 VBSEs. For all VBSEs, returns-to-asset ratio showed strong earnings of 3.5% and 4% in 2006/7 and 2007 and were lower than an acceptable stress level of 6%. All VBSEs had current ratio above the threshold of one and therefore were not vulnerable to meet short-term debts. The average debt-to-asset ratio of all VBSEs was low (5% in 2006/7 and 1.6% in 2007/8) suggesting their strong borrowing capacity with no financial risk. Similarly, the debt-to-equity ratio indicated that in all cases, the farmers' share of the seed enterprise equity averaged about 5. 42% and 1.6% during 2006/7 and 2007/8, respectively. The most progressive and experienced VBSEs are using diversification strategies to increase and stabilize revenues. This provides evidence that quality-seed production at community-level in the form of VBSEs is profitable and an alternative seed-delivery system complementing the formal sector in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

SUMMARYThis paper summarizes a study initiated by the Turkish General Directorate of Agricultural Research and ICARDA/CIMMYT Wheat Improvement Program on the adoption of five new winter and spring wheat varieties developed and released by the Turkish national breeding program and through international collaboration in the past 10 years. The study results are based on a survey of 781 households selected randomly in the Adana, Ankara, Diyarbakir, Edirne, and Konya provinces of Turkey. The five new wheat varieties are compared to old improved varieties released prior to 1995 that are also still grown by farmers. Technical and biological indicators of impacts including crop productivity are measured to determine the impact of these varieties. Yield stability is assessed by comparing average yields in normal, good and dry years and by comparing the coefficients of variation of yields by variety. Profitability is measured by the gross margin generated per unit of land. Household income from wheat and for all economic activities are estimated and compared between adopters and non-adopters. Adopters of the new varieties have higher per-capita income than non-adopters as compared to the same group using old varieties. However, the overall impact of the improved varieties is generally low, mainly due to their low adoption levels. Farmers’ knowledge and perception of certain variety characteristics and unavailability of adequate and timely seed are the main reasons. Increasing adoption has the potential to improve household income and this requires revising wheat impact pathway to achieve the expected impact.

No abstract