BackgroundThere is an unmet need of pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatment options for migraine patients. Exercise can be used in the treatment of several pain conditions, including. However, what exact role exercise plays in migraine prevention is unclear. Here, we review the associations between physical exercise and migraine from an epidemiological, therapeutical and pathophysiological perspective.MethodsThe review was based on a primary literature search on the PubMed using the search terms “migraine and exercise”.ResultsLow levels of physical exercise and high frequency of migraine has been reported in several large population-based studies. In experimental studies exercise has been reported as a trigger factor for migraine as well as migraine prophylaxis. Possible mechanisms for how exercise may trigger migraine attacks, include acute release of neuropeptides such as calcitonin gene-related peptide or alternation of hypocretin or lactate metabolism. Mechanisms for migraine prevention by exercise may include increased beta-endorphin, endocannabinoid and brain-derived neurotrophic factor levers in plasma after exercise.ConclusionIn conclusion, it seems that although exercise can trigger migraine attacks, regular exercise may have prophylactic effect on migraine frequency. This is most likely due to an altered migraine triggering threshold in persons who exercise regularly. However, the frequency and intensity of exercise that is required is still an open question, which should be addressed in future studies to delineate an evidence-based exercise program to prevent migraine in sufferers.

Abstract. We investigate the impact of atmospheric forcing uncertainties on the prediction of the dispersion of pollutants in the marine environment. Ensemble simulations consisting of 50 members were carried out using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and the oil spill model MEDSLIK-II in the Aegean Sea. A deterministic control run using the unperturbed wind of the ECMWF high-resolution system served as reference for the oil spill prediction. We considered the oil spill rates and duration to be similar to major accidents of the past (e.g., the Prestige case) and we performed simulations for different seasons and oil spill types. Oil spill performance metrics and indices were introduced in the context of probabilistic hazard assessment. Results suggest that oil spill model uncertainties were sensitive to the atmospheric forcing uncertainties, especially to phase differences in the intensity and direction of the wind among members. An oil spill ensemble prediction system based on model uncertainty of the atmospheric forcing, shows great potential for predicting pathways of oil spill transport alongside a deterministic simulation, increasing the reliability of the model prediction and providing important information for the control and mitigation strategies in the event of an oil spill accident.

Abstract. We investigate the impact of atmospheric forcing uncertainties on the prediction of dispersion of pollutants in the marine environment. Ensemble simulations consisted of 50 members were carried out using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and the oil spill model MEDSLIK-II in the Aegean Sea. A deterministic control run, using the unperturbed wind of the ECMWF high resolution system, served as reference for the oil spill prediction. We considered oil spill rates and duration similar to major accidents of the past (e.g. the Prestige case) and we performed simulations for different seasons and oil spill types. Oil spill performance metrics and indices were introduced in the context of probabilistic hazard assessment. Results suggest that oil spill model uncertainties were sensitive to the atmospheric forcing uncertainties, especially to phase differences in the intensity and direction of the wind among members. An oil spill ensemble prediction system based on model uncertainty of the atmospheric forcing, shows great potential for predicting pathways of oil spill transport, alongside a deterministic simulation, increasing the reliability of the model prediction and providing important information for the control and mitigation strategies in the event of an oil spill accident.

<p>The Aegean Sea is one of the world’s busiest waterways, combined with complex and intense weather and sea current patterns with strong seasonality, complicated coastline and bathymetry. Therefore, the uncertainty assessment of the oil spill forecasting systems in this region is of great interest. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the uncertainty of the atmospheric forcing on the performance of the oil spill modelling and the dispersion of the pollutants in the marine environment. Ensemble simulations were carried out using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the oil spill model MEDSLIK II. The Aegean Sea was chosen as the study area performing ensembles of 50 members with seven days forecast lead time, during different seasons. Three types of oil were chosen representing lighter, medium and heavier oil spills, covering also a wide range of oil densities. The oil spill duration and the spill rate were chosen taking into account significant accidents of the past like for instance the Prestige case. Preliminary results suggest that the model errors in the oil spill trajectories are sensitive to the atmospheric forcing uncertainties.</p> <p>Keywords: Aegean Sea, MEDSLIK II, Oil spill, ensemble simulation, uncertainty</p>