For over 16 years, the Precipitation Radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite detected the three-dimensional structure of significantly precipitating clouds in the tropics and subtropics. This paper reviews and synthesizes studies using the TRMM radar data to present a global picture of the variation of convection throughout low latitudes. The multiyear data set shows convection varying not only in amount but also in its very nature across the oceans, continents, islands, and mountain ranges of the tropics and subtropics. Shallow isolated raining clouds are overwhelmingly an oceanic phenomenon. Extremely deep and intense convective elements occur almost exclusively over land. Upscale growth of convection into mesoscale systems takes a variety of forms. Oceanic cloud systems generally have less intense embedded convection but can form very wide stratiform regions. Continental mesoscale systems often have more intense embedded convection. Some of the most intense convective cells and mesoscale systems occur near the great mountain ranges of low latitudes. The Maritime Continent and Amazonia exhibit convective clouds with maritime characteristics although they are partially or wholly land. Convective systems containing broad stratiform areas manifest most strongly over oceans. The stratiform precipitation occurs in various forms. Often it occurs as quasi-uniform precipitation with strong melting layers connected with intense convection. In monsoons and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, it takes the form of closely packed weak convective elements. Where fronts extend into the subtropics, broad stratiform regions are larger and have lower and sloping melting layers related to the baroclinic origin of the precipitation.

Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

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