Large collections of electronic patient records provide a vast but still underutilised source of information on the real world use of medicines. They are maintained primarily for the purpose of patient administration, but contain a broad range of clinical information highly relevant for data analysis. While they are a standard resource for epidemiological confirmatory studies, their use in the context of exploratory data analysis is still limited. In this paper, we present a framework for open-ended pattern discovery in large patient records repositories. At the core is a graphical statistical approach to summarising and visualising the temporal association between the prescription of a drug and the occurrence of a medical event. The graphical overview contrasts the observed and expected number of occurrences of the medical event in different time periods both before and after the prescription of interest. In order to effectively screen for important temporal relationships, we introduce a new measure of temporal association, which contrasts the observed-to-expected ratio in a time period immediately after the prescription to the observed-to-expected ratio in a control period 2 years earlier. An important feature of both the observed-to-expected graph and the measure of temporal association is a statistical shrinkage towards the null hypothesis of no association, which provides protection against highlighting spurious associations. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed pattern discovery Responsible editor: R. 123 362 G. N. Norén et al.methodology by a set of examples from a collection of over two million patient records in the United Kingdom. The identified patterns include temporal relationships between drug prescriptions and medical events suggestive of persistent and transient risks of adverse events, possible beneficial effects of drugs, periodic co-occurrence, and systematic tendencies of patients to switch from one medication to another.

Reports in VigiBase received internationally for more than 40 years reflect real concerns for children taking medicines. The study highlights adverse reactions with an increased reporting during recent years, particularly those connected to the introduction of ADHD medicines in the child population. To enhance patient safety, medication errors indicating administration and dosing difficulties of drugs, especially in the younger age groups, require further attention.

IntroductionValproic acid is an effective first line drug for the treatment of epilepsy. Hepatotoxicity is a rare and potentially fatal adverse reaction for this medicine.ObjectiveFirstly to characterise valproic acid reports on children with fatal outcome and secondly to determine reporting over time of hepatotoxicity with fatal outcome.MethodsIndividual case safety reports (ICSRs) for children ≤17 years with valproic acid and fatal outcome were retrieved from the WHO Global ICSR database, VigiBase, in June 2013. Reports were classified into hepatotoxic reactions or other reactions. Shrinkage observed-to-expected ratios were used to explore the relative reporting trend over time and for patient age. The frequency of polytherapy, i.e. reports with more than one antiepileptic medicine, was investigated.ResultsThere have been 268 ICSRs with valproic acid and fatal outcome in children, reported from 25 countries since 1977. A total of 156 fatalities were reported with hepatotoxicity, which has been continuously and disproportionally reported over time. There were 31 fatalities with pancreatitis. Other frequently reported events were coma/encephalopathy, seizures, respiratory disorders and coagulopathy. Hepatotoxicity was disproportionally and most commonly reported in children aged 6 years and under (104/156 reports) but affected children of all ages. Polytherapy was significantly more frequently reported for valproic acid with fatal outcome (58%) compared with non-fatal outcome (34%).ConclusionHepatotoxicity remains a considerable problem. The risk appears to be greatest in young children (6 years and below) but can occur at any age. Polytherapy is commonly reported and seems to be a risk factor for hepatotoxicity, pancreatitis and other serious adverse drug reactions with valproic acid.

We emphasise the rarity of this possible association, and also the need for further study to establish whether a causal relationship exists. We do advocate that trial discontinuation of a statin should be considered in patients with serious neuromuscular disease such as the ALS-like syndrome, given the poor prognosis and a possibility that progression of the disease may be halted or even reversed.

Masking by outliers has substantial impact on specific ADRs including, in VigiBase, rhabdomyolysis, myocardial infarction and hypoglycaemia. It is a local phenomenon involving a fair number of reports but yielding a limited number of additional SDRs.