Standard Markovian optimal stopping problems are consistent in the sense that the first entrance time into the stopping set is optimal for each initial state of the process. Clearly, the usual concept of optimality cannot in a straightforward way be applied to non-standard stopping problems without this time-consistent structure. This paper is devoted to the solution of time-inconsistent stopping problems with the reward depending on the initial state using an adaptation of Strotz's consistent planning. More precisely, we give a precise equilibrium definition -of the type subgame perfect Nash equilibrium based on pure Markov strategies. In general, such equilibria do not always exist and if they exist they are in general not unique. We, however, develop an iterative approach to finding equilibrium stopping times for a general class of problems and apply this approach to one-sided stopping problems on the real line. We furthermore prove a verification theorem based on a set of variational inequalities which also allows us to find equilibria. In the case of a standard optimal stopping problem, we investigate the connection between the notion of an optimal and an equilibrium stopping time. As an application of the developed theory we study a selling strategy problem under exponential utility and endogenous habit formation.
A game-theoretic framework for time-inconsistent stopping problems where the time-inconsistency is due to the consideration of a non-linear function of an expected reward is developed. A class of mixed strategy stopping times that allows the agents in the game to jointly choose the intensity function of a Cox process is introduced and motivated. A subgame perfect Nash equilibrium is defined. The equilibrium is characterized and other necessary and sufficient equilibrium conditions including a smooth fit result are proved. Existence and uniqueness are investigated. A mean-variance and a variance problem are studied. The state process is a general one-dimensional Itô diffusion.
Control problems not admitting the dynamic programming principle are known as time-inconsistent. The game-theoretic approach is to interpret such problems as intrapersonal dynamic games and look for subgame perfect Nash equilibria. A fundamental result of time-inconsistent stochastic control is a verification theorem saying that solving the extended HJB system is a sufficient condition for equilibrium. We show that solving the extended HJB system is a necessary condition for equilibrium, under regularity assumptions. The controlled process is a general Itô diffusion. AMS MSC2010: 49J20; 49N90; 93E20; 35Q91; 49L99; 91B51; 91G80.
The aim of this paper is to define the market-consistent multiperiod value of an insurance liability cash flow in discrete time subject to repeated capital requirements, and explore its properties. In line with current regulatory frameworks, the approach presented is based on a hypothetical transfer of the original liability and a replicating portfolio to an empty corporate entity whose owner must comply with repeated one-period capital requirements but has the option to terminate the ownership at any time. The value of the liability is defined as the no-arbitrage price of the cash flow to the policyholders, optimally stopped from the owner's perspective, taking capital requirements into account. The value is computed as the solution to a sequence of coupled optimal stopping problems or, equivalently, as the solution to a backward recursion.
We study a singular stochastic control problem faced by the owner of an insurance company that dynamically pays dividends and raises capital in the presence of the restriction that the surplus process must be above a given dividend payout barrier in order for dividend payments to be allowed. Bankruptcy occurs if the surplus process becomes negative and there are proportional costs for capital injection. We show that one of the following strategies is optimal: (i) Pay dividends and inject capital in order to reflect the surplus process at an upper barrier and at 0, implying bankruptcy never occurs. (ii) Pay dividends in order to reflect the surplus process at an upper barrier and never inject capital-corresponding to absorption at 0-implying bankruptcy occurs the first time the surplus reaches zero. We show that if the costs of capital injection are low, then a sufficiently high dividend payout barrier will change the optimal strategy from type (i) (without bankruptcy) to type (ii) (with bankruptcy). Moreover, if the costs are high, then the optimal strategy is of type (ii) regardless of the dividend payout barrier. We also consider the possibility for the owner to choose a stopping time at which the insurance company is liquidated and the owner obtains a liquidation value. The uncontrolled surplus process is a Wiener process with drift.
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