Summary 1.Understanding why invading populations sometimes fail to establish is of considerable relevance to the development of strategies for managing biological invasions. 2. Newly arriving populations tend to be sparse and are often influenced by Allee effects. Mating failure is a typical cause of Allee effects in low-density insect populations, and dispersion of individuals in space and time can exacerbate mate-location failure in invading populations. 3. Here we evaluate the relative importance of dispersal and sexual asynchrony as contributors to Allee effects in invading populations by adopting as a case study the gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar L.), an important insect defoliator for which considerable demographic information is available. 4. We used release-recapture experiments to parameterize a model that describes probabilities that males locate females along various spatial and temporal offsets between male and female adult emergence. 5. Based on these experimental results, we developed a generalized model of mating success that demonstrates the existence of an Allee threshold, below which introduced gypsy moth populations are likely to go extinct without any management intervention.

The movement of humans and goods has facilitated the arrival of non‐native insects, some of which successfully establish and cause negative consequences to the composition, services, and functioning of ecosystems. The gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), is currently invading North American forests at variable rates, spreading by local and long‐distance movement in a process known as stratified dispersal. Newly arriving colonizers often occur considerably ahead of the population front, and a key question is the degree to which they successfully establish. Prior research has highlighted mate‐finding failures in sparse populations as a cause of an Allee effect (positive density dependence). We explored this mechanism by measuring the relationship between female mating success and background male moth densities along the gypsy moth western front in Northern Wisconsin (USA) over 2 years. The mating results were then compared with analogous previous studies in southern Wisconsin, and the southern front in West Virginia and Virginia (USA). Mate‐finding failures in low‐density populations were consistently observed to be density‐dependent across all years and locations. Mate‐finding failures in low‐density populations have important ramifications to invasive species management, particularly in predicting species invasiveness, preventing successful establishment by small founder populations, and concentrating eradication efforts where they are most likely to succeed.

The successful establishment of non-native species in new areas can be affected by many factors including the initial size of the founder population. Populations comprised of fewer individuals tend to be subject to stochastic forces and Allee effects (positive-density dependence), which can challenge the ability of small founder populations to establish in a new area. Although the conceptual relationship between initial colony size and establishment success has been previously documented, it is not trivial to estimate precisely the colony size needed to ensure colony persistence. Over the last 40 years, there have been many studies on the probability of mating success of female Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in the USA related to background male moth densities. We were motivated by this wealth of data and sought to combine the results from these prior studies with the goal of estimating a robust measure of the male moth density required to achieve varying levels of female mating success. Although the data are specific to L. dispar, the pheromone communication system in L. dispar is not unique and thus the results of this analysis could be broadly applicable to our general understanding of Lepidoptera mating behavior.

Estimates of absolute pest population density are critical to pest management programs but have been difficult to obtain from capture numbers in pheromone-baited monitoring traps. In this paper, we establish a novel predictive relationship for a probability (spTfer(r)) of catching a male located at a distance r from the trap with a plume reach D.

Several integrated pest management programs rely on the use of mating disruption tactics to control insect pests. Some programs specifically target non‐native species, such as the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae). We evaluated SPLAT® GM, a new sprayable formulation of the gypsy moth sex pheromone disparlure, for its ability to disrupt gypsy moth mating. The study was conducted in 2006, 2007, and 2008 in forested areas in Virginia, USA. Mating success of gypsy moth females was reduced by >99% and male moth catches in pheromone‐baited traps by >90%, in plots treated with SPLAT® GM at dosages ranging from 15 to 75 g of active ingredient (a.i.) ha−1. Dosage‐response tests conducted in 2008 indicated that SPLAT® GM applied at a dosage of 7.5 g a.i. ha−1 was as effective as a 15 g a.i. ha−1 dosage.