The Turkestan lynx (Lynx lynx isabellina Blyth, 1847) is a rare and understudied subspecies of the Eurasian lynx occupying the mountains of Central and South Asia. This elusive felid’s northwestern range includes the Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau mountains in the border region of Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the first step to conserve this vulnerable carnivore, we have conducted the first full-scale research from 2013 until 2022 on its distribution in this region. Using 132 environmental predictors of 359 lynx sightings, we have created species habitat distribution models across the lynx’s northwestern range using machine learning approaches (Maximum Entropy—MaxEnt). Additionally, we created species distribution forecasts based on seven bio-climatic environmental predictors with each three different future global climate model scenarios. To validate these forecasts, we have calculated the changes in the lynx distribution range for the year 2100, making the first species distribution forecast for the Turkestan lynx in the area. Additionally, it provides insight into the possible effects of global climate change on this lynx population. Based on these distribution models, the lynx population in the Northern and Western Tien Shan and Zhetisu Alatau plays a significant role in maintaining the stability of the whole subspecies in its northwestern and global range, while the distribution forecast shows that most lynx distribution ranges will reduce in all future climate scenarios, and we might face the Turkestan lynx’s significant distribution range decline under the ongoing and advancing climate change conditions. For a future (year 2100) warming scenario of 3 deg. C (GCM IPSL), we observe a decrease of 35% in Kazakhstan, 40% in Kyrgyzstan, and 30% in China as the three countries with the highest current predicted distribution range. For a milder temperature increase of 1.5–2 deg. C. (GCM MRI), we observe an increase of 17% Kazakhstan, decrease of 10% in Kyrgyzstan, and 57% in China. For a cooling scenario of approx. 1–1.5 deg. C (GCM MIROC), we observe a decrease of 14% Kazakhstan, increase of 11% in Kyrgyzstan, and a decrease of 13% in China. These modeled declines indicate the necessity to create new and expand the existing protected areas and establish ecological corridors between the countries in Central and South Asia.

The article provides an analytical review of the current state of study of the Karelin grouse Fritillaria karelinii (Fisch. ex D. Don) Baker from the family. Liliaceae on literature, herbarium and field research materials undertaken in March 2020 on the territory of Almaty region on the basis of which described natural population and the peculiarities of distribution in the South-East of Kazakhstan the studied species, the bulbs of which in recent years have become the object of a natural and predatory harvesting on the territory of Almaty region with the aim of exporting raw materials to China, where they are applied in Chinese medicine to receive antitussives and expectorants. According to the literature, a number of species of Ryabchik was able to detect antihypertensive, antinociceptive (analgesic), anti-inflammatory, sedative and antitumor effects due to the presence of steroid alkaloids. Analysis of the collections of the herbarium Fund of the Institute of botany and phyto-introduction indicates a wide distribution of the studied species on the territory of Kazakhstan, about half of the samples of which are collected in the South-East of Kazakhstan. Phytocenotic and morphometric characteristics are given, as well as a map of the location of F. karelinii coenopopulations identified on the territory of the Almaty region. Comparative analysis of morphometric parameters of the Karelin river from three populations indicates that the ili population of the studied species is characterized by favorable environmental conditions and the absence of limiting factors. At the same time, the Kapshagai and Bogetinsky populations are subject to a strong anthropogenic load and need to be protected.