Rapid temperature changes in mountain ecosystems pose a great threat to alpine plant species and communities. Rhododendron species, as the major component of alpine and sub-alpine vegetation, have been demonstrated to be sensitive to climate changes. Therefore, understanding how alpine Rhododendron species spread to new habitats and how their geographical distribution range shifts is crucial for predicting their response to global climate change and for facilitating species conservation and reintroduction. In this study, we applied MaxEnt modeling and integrated climate, topography, and soil variables in three periods under three climate change scenarios to predict the suitable habitat for four Rhododendron species in China. We measured the potential distribution change in each species using the change ratio and the direction of centroid shifts. The predicted results showed that (1) the threatened species R. protistum would have a maximum decrease of 85.84% in its distribution range in the 2070s under RCP 8.5, and R. rex subsp. rex as a threatened species would experience a distribution range expansion (6.62–43.10%) under all of the three climate change scenarios in the 2070s. (2) R. praestans would experience a reduction in its distribution range (7.82–28.34%) under all of the three climate change scenarios in the 2070s. (3) The four Rhododendron species would be moved to high latitudes in the north-westward direction as a whole in the future, especially the two threatened species R. protistum and R. rex subsp. rex. (4) Aside from climate variables, soil factors also exert an important influence on the distribution of Rhododendron species. This study revealed the species-specific response of Rhododendron species to climate change. The results can not only provide novel insights into conservation strategies of Rhododendron species, but also propose a valuable method for the habitat selection during the reintroduction of endangered species.

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