In flood risk assessment, there remains a lack of analytical frameworks capturing the dynamics emerging from two-way feedbacks between physical and social processes, such as adaptation and levee effect. The former, ''adaptation effect'', relates to the observation that the occurrence of more frequent flooding is often associated with decreasing vulnerability. The latter, ''levee effect'', relates to the observation that the non-occurrence of frequent flooding (possibly caused by flood protection structures, e.g. levees) is often associated to increasing vulnerability. As current analytical frameworks do not capture these dynamics, projections of future flood risk are not realistic. In this paper, we develop a new approach whereby the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies are explicitly accounted for. Moreover, we show an application of this approach by using a socio-hydrological model to simulate the behavior of two main prototypes of societies: green societies, which cope with flooding by resettling out of flood-prone areas; and technological societies, which deal with flooding also by building levees or dikes. This application shows that the proposed approach is able to capture and explain the aforementioned dynamics (i.e. adaptation and levee effect) and therefore contribute to a better understanding of changes in flood risk, within an iterative process of theory development and empirical research.

The world's coastal areas are increasingly at risk of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). We present a novel global dataset of extreme sea levels, the Coastal Dataset for the Evaluation of Climate Impact (CoDEC), which can be used to accurately map the impact of climate change on coastal regions around the world. The third generation Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), with a coastal resolution of 2.5 km (1.25 km in Europe), was used to simulate extreme sea levels for the ERA5 climate reanalysis from 1979 to 2017, as well as for future climate scenarios from 2040 to 2100. The validation against observed sea levels demonstrated a good performance, and the annual maxima had a mean bias (MB) of-0.04 m, which is 50% lower than the MB of the previous GTSR dataset. By the end of the century (2071-2100), it is projected that the 1 in 10-year water levels will have increased 0.34 m on average for RCP4.5, while some locations may experience increases of up to 0.5 m. The change in return levels is largely driven by SLR, although at some locations changes in storms surges and interaction with tides amplify the impact of SLR with changes up to 0.2 m. By presenting an application of the CoDEC dataset to the city of Copenhagen, we demonstrate how climate impact indicators derived from simulation can contribute to an understanding of climate impact on a local scale. Moreover, the CoDEC output locations are designed to be used as boundary conditions for regional models, and we envisage that they will be used for dynamic downscaling.

During the last two decades, remote sensing data have led to tremendous progress in advancing flood inundation modelling. In particular, low‐cost space‐borne data can be invaluable for large‐scale flood studies in data‐scarce areas. Various satellite products yield valuable information such as land surface elevation, flood extent and water level, which could potentially contribute to various flood studies. An increasing number of research studies have been dedicated to exploring those low‐cost data towards building, calibration and evaluation, and remote‐sensed information assimilation into hydraulic models. This paper aims at reviewing these recent scientific efforts on the integration of low‐cost space‐borne remote sensing data with flood modelling. Potentials and limitations of those data in flood modelling are discussed. This paper also introduces the future satellite missions and anticipates their likely impacts in flood modelling. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious global public health problem in the present. TB also affects other sites (extrapulmonary tuberculosis, EPTB), and accounts for a significant proportion of tuberculosis cases worldwide. In order to comprehensively understand epidemiology of EBTB in China, and improve early diagnosis and treatment, we conducted a large-scale multi-center observational study to assess the demographic data and the prevalence of common EPTB inpatients, and further evaluate the prevalence of EPTB concurrent with Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and the associations between multiple EPTB types and gender-age group in China. All consecutive age≥15yr inpatients with a confirmed diagnosis of EPTB during the period from January 2011 to December 2017 were included in the study. The descriptive statistical analysis included median and quartile measurements for continuous variables, and frequencies and proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for categorical variables. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to compare the association of multiple EPTB types between age group and gender. The results showed that the proportion of 15–24 years and 25–34 years in EPTB inpatients were the most and the ratio of male: female was 1.51. Approximately 70% of EPTB inpatients were concurrent with PTB or other types of EPTB. The most common of EPTB was tuberculous pleurisy (50.15%), followed by bronchial tuberculosis (14.96%), tuberculous lymphadenitis of the neck (7.24%), tuberculous meningitis (7.23%), etc. It was found that many EPTB inpatients concurrent with PTB. The highest prevalence of EPTB concurrent with PTB was pharyngeal/laryngeal tuberculosis (91.31%), followed by bronchial tuberculosis (89.52%), tuberculosis of hilar lymph nodes (79.52%), tuberculosis of mediastinal lymph nodes (79.13%), intestinal tuberculosis (72.04%), tuberculous pleurisy (65.31%) and tuberculous meningitis (62.64%), etc. The results from EPTB concurrent with PTB suggested that females EPTB inpatients were less likely to be at higher risk of concurrent PTB (aOR = 0.819, 95%CI:0.803–0.835) after adjusted by age. As age increasing, the trend risk of concurrent PTB decreased (aOR = 0.994, 95%CI: 0.989–0.999) after adjusted by gender. Our study demonstrated that the common EPTB were tuberculous pleurisy, bronchial tuberculosis, tuberculous lymphadenitis of the neck, tuberculous meningitis, etc. A majority of patients with pharyngeal/laryngeal tuberculosis, bronchial tuberculosis, tuberculosis of hilar/mediastinal lymph nodes, intestinal tuberculosis, tuberculous pleurisy, tuberculous meningitis, etc. were concurrent with PTB. Female EPTB inpatients were less likely to be at higher risk of concurrent PTB, and as age increasing, the trend risk of concurrent PTB decreased. The clinicians should be alert to the presence of concurrent tuberculosis in EPTB, and all suspected cases of EPTB should be assessed for concomitant PTB to determine whether the case is infectious and to help for early diagnosis and treatment.

No abstract