The importance of the tourism sector has been increasing over the last 20 years across the world, since it makes a contribution, enabling developing countries converge developed countries economically. The aim of this study is to analyze whether or not there is any convergence between top ten countries, listed by World Tourism Organization, which have the largest volume of visitor arrivals, Turkey being one of these countries. To test the convergence hypothesis, the authors of the current research have generated a 15-year panel data set to apply panel unit root analysis for the period of 1995 through 2009. The results show that the convergence is justified regarding a joint unit root process. For the individual unit root process, however, it is justified only among France,

GİRİŞTurizm, 21. yüzyılın en önemli hizmet sektörlerin-den biridir. Bundan çok değil 50-60 yıl öncesine kadar, ekonomik önemi pek de fark edilmeyen turizm, bugün artık ister gelişmiş isterse az gelişmiş olsun tüm ülkeler için döviz geliri getiren önemli bir sektör konumundadır. Gelir kazandırıcı yönü-nün giderek artması ile birlikte, ülkelerin uluslararası turizm piyasasından pay alma ve pazar arayı-şı ile bunun beraberinde getirmiş olduğu rekabet, özellikle Akdeniz bölgesinde her geçen gün artmaktadır (Bahar ve Kozak 2007;Kozak, Baloğlu ve Bahar 2010). Dolayısıyla ülkeler doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları başta olmak üzere, bir takım teşvik, hibe, düşük faizli kredi ve desteklerle sektöre çok büyük yatırımlar yapmakta ya da çekme-ye çalışmaktadır (Bahar 2010). Ancak ekonominin imalat öncelikli olmak üzere diğer sektörlerine oranla, turizme yapılan yatırımların geri dönüş sü-resi oldukça uzundur. Diğer bir deyişle, diğer sektörlere yapılan yatırımların geri dönüşü 3-5 yıl iken bu süre turizmde yedi ila 10 yıla kadar çıkabilmek-tedir. Bu bağlamda, turizm sektörüne yapılacak olan yatırımların geri dönüşü ve sürdürülebilirliği sorunu, hem yatırımcı hem de ülke ekonomisi açı-sından düşünmeye değer bir konu olarak karşımı-za çıkmaktadır. Copyright  2015 anatolia Bütün hakları saklıdır ISSN: 1300-4220 (1990-2015) ABSTRACTThe aim of the study is to analyze the effects of demand shocks in Turkish tourism sector. In this context, a panel data set has been executed of the time period including from 1991 to 2010 which has been gathered from the tourism statistics database of the ministry of Culture and Tourism of The Republic of Turkey and panel unit root analysis established. By determining the panel unit root analysis; the effects of demand shocks have been taken into investigation whether they are permanent or not. As a result of the analysis, it is reached to a decision that the demand shocks are non-permanent. In this study, it is aimed to identify the demand shocks of Turkish tourism sector and to analyze the effects so that it has a pioneer manner for the subject considered.

Purpose This study aims to measure the relationship between demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism industry. Design/methodology/approach A panel data set is constructed covering the period between 1995 and 2017, and the data set includes the top 26 countries that host 10 million tourists and above in the world as of 2017. The standard errors of the series are used as an indicator of shocks. First, the cross-sectional dependency, stationarity and the homogeneity of the series are examined; second, a panel cointegration analysis is implemented; third, long-term panel cointegration coefficients are analyzed with Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) approach; and, finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test is used to detect the causality. Findings The preliminary analyses show that the variables are cross-sectional dependent and heterogeneous and are stationary in their first difference; hence, the effects of the shocks are temporary. On the other hand, as a result of the panel cointegration analysis, it is found that both series are cointegrated over the long-term. However, the long-term coefficients estimated with the DCCE approach are found not to be statistically significant. Finally, as a result of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test, it is concluded that there is a causality running from exchange rate shocks to demand shocks. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the cointegration between the tourism demand shocks and exchange rates shocks has not been investigated before, and therefore, this study is considered to be a pioneering study that will contribute to the literature.

Economic convergence has two meanings: the first refers to a more equitative system of wealth distribution (sigmaconvergence), whereas Beta convergence is related to a higher rate of growth within poor countries than in rich ones. Assessing Neoclassical Growth through the convergence hypothesis has been catching the attention of the researchers since the 1950s. In order to test convergence, statistical methods such as regression analysis and panel data analysis are generally used. However, these methods are based on some strict assumptions that the practical problems do not support. This study purposes fuzzy convergence method that does not require any assumptions. Fuzzy convergence is based on fuzzy logic that is especially used to analyze problems including uncertainty, vagueness or impreciseness. Fuzzy convergence has been proposed for the first time in this study and has been used firstly to test whether fuzzy convergence is present or not in terms of international tourism receipts. This study aims to estimate which membership values of countries or regions are convergent or divergent, in the other words, introducing the part-convergence and part-divergence concept. The results suggest that fuzzy convergence exists within countries. The originality of this study is to use convergence concept based on fuzzy logic. Thus, we aim to estimate which membership values of countries or regions are convergent or divergent, in other words, introducing the part-convergence and part-divergence concept.

Çalışmanın konusu enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkidir. Çalışmanın temel amacı; 1980'lerden bu yana birçok iktisatçının üzerinde araştırmalar yaptığı enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin hem teorik hem de ampirik olarak analiz edilmesidir. Çalışmada öncelikle konuyla ilgili literatür incelenmiş ve panel eşbütünleşme analiz yöntemini kullanılarak, ekonomik büyüme ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki ilişkiyi ampirik olarak ölçülmüştür. Çalışmanın verileri Dünya Bankası'nın İstatistiki Veri Tabanı'ndan elde edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda, enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında bir eşbütünleşeme ilişkisinin olduğu sunucuna ulaşılmıştır.