No abstract

Knowing of the chaos theory by the economists has caused the understanding of the difficulties of the balance in economy. The applications of the chaos theory related to economy have aimed to overcome these difficulties. Chaotic deterministic models with sensitive dependence on initial conditions provide a powerful tool in understanding the apparently random movements in financial data. The dynamic systems are analyzed by using linear and/or nonlinear methods in the previous studies. Although the linear methods used for stable linear systems, generally fails at the nonlinear analysis, however, they give intuition about the problem. Due to a nonlinear variable in the difference equations describing the dynamic systems, unpredictable dynamics may occur. The chaos theory or nonlinear analysis methods are used to examine such dynamics systems. The chaos that expresses an irregular condition can be characterized by “sensitive dependence on initial conditions”. We employ four tests, viz. the BDS test on raw data, the BDS test on pre-filtered data, Correlation Dimension test and the Brock’s Residual test. The financial markets considered are the stock market, the foreign exchange market. The results from these tests provide very weak evidence for the presence of chaos in Turkish financial markets. BIST, Exchange Rate and Gold Prices. In this study, the methods for the chaotic analysis of the time series, obtained based on the discrete or continuous measurements of a variable are investigated. The chaotic analysis methods have been applied on the time series of various systems.

The aim of this study is to identify the effects of the volatility of oil prices and exchange rates on foreign trade revenue of a few selected Eurasian Economies. These countries are oil and natural gas exporting countries and getting most of their trade revenue from exporting these commodities. The effects of sharply falling oil prices since June 2014 and depreciating exchange rates on these countries’ external trade were analyzed by using alternative econometric models. The sample of this analysis covered the period from June 2014 when oil prices has started falling sharply – till June 2015 in which still world oil price is lower than the price of 140-150 dollars for per gallon in the previous years. Decreasing prices basically destabilize the revenues of these states since approximately two third (2/3) of their export revenue and substantial part of their budget revenue that comes from oil and natural gas. In Russian economy falling prices of oil depreciates both public revenue and economic activity. This means predominantly depending on one commodity for export and foreign trade makes these countries’ economies in dependence of that commodity’s price and makes these economies so vulnerable to global crisis and price volatilities. In order to avoid from this situation, these countries should divert their production and increase in variety for exporting goods.

As though it is a frequently researched topic that the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth, it is ignored that the level of military expenditures of countries based on their rival and allied countries or international organizations which they are members. Accordingly, in study, the relationship between military expenditures and economic growth is examined with the panel data analysis for 19 G-20countries. In this study two groups of Panel data models are applied. First panel group is military exporter. Second is military importer. The results of study support that feedback hypothesis exists for the U.S., growth hypothesis is valid for G-20 Countries and Turkey.

Teknik analiz temel olarak fiyat grafikleri üzerindeki geometrik ?ekiller ve göstergeler yard?m?yla fiyat trendlerini tan?mlamay? amaçlar. Bu çal??ma hisse senedi getirileriyle teknik analiz göstergeleri aras?ndaki ili?kiyi 1-1-2000 ile 31-12-2013 tarihleri aras?nda BIST-Bankac?l?k endeksindeki Türk ticari bankalar? üzerinde ara?t?rmay? amaçlamaktad?r. Teknik analiz göstergeleri günlük hisse senedi fiyat verilerinden temin edilmi?tir. Burada ana ad?m hisse senedi getirileriyle teknik analiz göstergeleri aras?ndaki ili?kiyi ortaya koymakt?r. Bu amaçla bankac?l?k sektöründeki çe?itli bankalar?n hisse senetlerini kapsayan panel veri metodolojisi kullan?lm??t?r. Sonuç olarak panel olarak teknik analiz göstergeleriyle hisse senedi getirileri aras?nda istatistiki anlaml? bir ili?ki bulunmu?tur.