Aim  To relate the recent Iberian lynx decline to changes in the distribution of the European rabbit after the haemorrhagic disease outbreak of 1989. As Iberian rabbits evolved in two geographically separated lineages, being the recent lynx range practically restricted to the southwestern lineage, we also test if differential range dynamics exists for these lineages, with the consequent implications for lynx conservation and reintroduction planning. Location  The Iberian Peninsula. Methods  We modelled environmental favourability for the lynx based on its distribution before 1989, and for the rabbit using distribution data collected primarily after 1989, and validated them using independent abundance data. We compared both models and combined them in a lynx occurrence forecast. We correlated the prevalence of southwestern rabbit lineage with the environmental favourability for the rabbit. Results  The environmental lynx model correlated with past lynx abundance data, but did not reflect its recent strong range contraction. The rabbit model correlated with recent rabbit abundance, but was negatively correlated with the environmental model for the lynx. The combination of both models forecasted lynx occurrence in a few separated nuclei, which encompass all recent lynx records. The prevalence of rabbit's southwestern lineage correlated negatively with favourability for the rabbit. Main conclusions  The region to which the lynx became confined before 1989 is currently less favourable for rabbits, whereas more favourable areas remain outside lynx reach. This differential favourability correlates with rabbit phylogeographical structure, suggesting that the southwestern lineage is facing more unfavourable conditions or is less resilient to recent diseases. The loss of concordance between lynx distribution and the whole rabbit phylogeographical structure has prevented lynx persistence in northeastern rabbit lineage areas, which should be considered in lynx reintroduction planning. Similar conservation problems could affect other ecologically interacting species whose distributions’ overlapping has sharply diminished.

Aim The partition of the geographical variation in Argentinian terrestrial mammal species richness (SR) into environmentally, human and spatially induced variation.Location Argentina, using the twenty-three administrative provinces as the geographical units. MethodsWe recorded the number of terrestrial mammal species in each Argentinian province, and the number of species belonging to particular groups (Marsupialia, Placentaria, and among the latter, Xenarthra, Carnivora, Ungulates and Rodentia). We performed multiple regressions of each group's SR on environmental, human and spatial variables, to determine the amounts of variation explained by these factors. We then used a variance partitioning procedure to specify which proportion of the variation in SR is explained by each of the three factors exclusively and which proportions are attributable to interactions between factors.Results For marsupials, human activity explains the greatest part of the variation in SR. The purely environmental and purely human influences on all mammal SR explain a similarly high proportion of the variation in SR, whereas the purely spatial influence accounts for a smaller proportion of it. The exclusive interaction between human activity and space is negative in carnivores and rodents. For rodents, the interaction between environment and spatial situation is also negative. In the remaining placental groups, pure spatial autocorrelation explains a small proportion of the variation in SR.Main conclusions Environmental factors explain most of the variation in placental SR, while Marsupials seem to be mainly affected by human activity. However, for edentates, carnivores, and ungulates the pure human influence is more important than the pure spatial and environmental influences. Besides, human activity disrupts the spatial structure caused by the history and population dynamics of rodents and, to a lesser extent, of carnivores. The historical events and population dynamics on the one hand, and the environment on the other, cause rodent SR to vary in divergent directions. In the remaining placental groups the autocorrelation in SR is mainly the result of autocorrelation in the environmental and human variables.

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Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species’ responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus, algerian mouse Mus spretus, greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus, and black rat Rattus rattus. The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus, a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus, and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus. Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.