Context. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the primary source of strong space weather disturbances at Earth. Their geoeffectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic fields, for which reliable predictions at Earth are not possible with traditional cone CME models. Aims. We study two well-observed Earth-directed CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUH-FORIA) model, testing for the first time the predictive capabilities of a linear force-free spheromak CME model initialised using parameters derived from remote-sensing observations. Methods. Using observation-based CME input parameters, we perform magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the events with EUH-FORIA, using the cone and spheromak CME models.Results. Simulations show that spheromak CMEs propagate faster than cone CMEs when initialised with the same kinematic parameters. We interpret these differences as result of different Lorentz forces acting within cone and spheromak CMEs, which lead to different CME expansions in the heliosphere. Such discrepancies can be mitigated by initialising spheromak CMEs with a reduced speed corresponding to the radial speed only. Results at Earth evidence that the spheromak model improves the predictions of B (B z ) up to 12-60 (22-40) percentage points compared to a cone model. Considering virtual spacecraft located within ±10 • around Earth, B (B z ) predictions reach 45-70% (58-78%) of the observed peak values. The spheromak model shows inaccurate predictions of the magnetic field parameters at Earth for CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line.Conclusions. The spheromak model successfully predicts the CME properties and arrival time in the case of strictly Earth-directed events, while modelling CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line requires extra care due to limitations related to the assumed spherical shape. The spatial variability of modelling results and the typical uncertainties in the reconstructed CME direction advocate the need to consider predictions at Earth and at virtual spacecraft located around it.

Context. The heating of the solar corona by small heating events requires an increasing number of such events at progressively smaller scales, with the bulk of the heating occurring at scales that are currently unresolved. Aims. The goal of this work is to study the smallest brightening events observed in the extreme-UV quiet Sun. Methods. We used commissioning data taken by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) on board the recently launched Solar Orbiter mission. On 30 May 2020, the EUI was situated at 0.556 AU from the Sun. Its High Resolution EUV telescope (HRI EUV , 17.4 nm passband) reached an exceptionally high two-pixel spatial resolution of 400 km. The size and duration of small-scale structures was determined by the HRI EUV data, while their height was estimated from triangulation with simultaneous images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. This is the first stereoscopy of small-scale brightenings at high resolution. Results. We observed small localised brightenings, also known as 'campfires', in a quiet Sun region with length scales between 400 km and 4000 km and durations between 10 sec and 200 sec. The smallest and weakest of these HRI EUV brightenings have not been previously observed. Simultaneous observations from the EUI High-resolution Lyman-α telescope (HRI Lya ) do not show localised brightening events, but the locations of the HRI EUV events clearly correspond to the chromospheric network. Comparisons with simultaneous AIA images shows that most events can also be identified in the 17.1 nm, 19.3 nm, 21.1 nm, and 30.4 nm pass-bands of AIA, although they appear weaker and blurred. Our differential emission measure (DEM) analysis indicated coronal temperatures peaking at log T ≈ 6.1 − 6.15. We determined the height for a few of these campfires to be between 1000 and 5000 km above the photosphere. Conclusions. We find that 'campfires' are mostly coronal in nature and rooted in the magnetic flux concentrations of the chromospheric network. We interpret these events as a new extension to the flare-microflare-nanoflare family. Given their low height, the EUI 'campfires' could stand as a new element of the fine structure of the transition region-low corona, that is, as apexes of small-scale loops that undergo internal heating all the way up to coronal temperatures.

Context. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the interplanetary manifestations of solar eruptions. The overtaken solar wind forms a sheath of compressed plasma at the front of ICMEs. Magnetic clouds (MCs) are a subset of ICMEs with specific properties (e.g. the presence of a flux rope). When ICMEs pass near Earth, ground observations indicate that the flux of Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) decreases. Aims. The main aims of this paper are to find common plasma and magnetic properties of different ICME sub-structures and which ICME properties affect the flux of GCRs near Earth. Methods. We used a superposed epoch method applied to a large set of ICMEs observed in situ by the spacecraft ACE, between 1998 and 2006. We also applied a superposed epoch analysis on GCRs time series observed with the McMurdo neutron monitors. Results. We find that slow MCs at 1 AU have on average more massive sheaths. We conclude that this is because they are more effectively slowed down by drag during their travel from the Sun. Slow MCs also have a more symmetric magnetic field and sheaths expanding similarly as their following MC, while in contrast, fast MCs have an asymmetric magnetic profile and a sheath in compression. In all types of MCs, we find that the proton density and the temperature and the magnetic fluctuations can diffuse within the front of the MC due to 3D reconnection. Finally, we derive a quantitative model that describes the decrease in cosmic rays as a function of the amount of magnetic fluctuations and field strength. Conclusions. The obtained typical profiles of sheath, MC and GCR properties corresponding to slow, middle, and fast ICMEs, can be used for forecasting or modelling these events, and to better understand the transport of energetic particles in ICMEs. They are also useful for improving future operative space weather activities.

Abstract. Coronal Mass ejections (CMEs) are enormous eruptions of magnetized plasma expelled from the Sun into the interplanetary space, over the course of hours to days. They can create major disturbances in the interplanetary medium and trigger severe magnetic storms when they collide with the Earth's magnetosphere. It is important to know their real speed, propagation direction and 3-D configuration in order to accurately predict their arrival time at the Earth. Using data from the SECCHI coronagraphs onboard the STEREO mission, which was launched in October 2006, we can infer the propagation direction and the 3-D structure of such events. In this review, we first describe different techniques that were used to model the 3-D configuration of CMEs in the coronagraph field of view (up to 15 R ).Correspondence to: M. Mierla (mmierla@gmail.com) Then, we apply these techniques to different CMEs observed by various coronagraphs. A comparison of results obtained from the application of different reconstruction algorithms is presented and discussed.

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point.